ASTRO ETF TRADING Richard Schulz
ETF Investment 12/ 19 0700 (cst) Trading notes below astro
TRADING NOTES:
12/ 19 0700: I will maintain the tradesand statistics, with occasional charts, with some delay, on this site. Otherwise the primary pertient new will be for subscribers.
12/ 16 0750: First, and foremost, I wish to thank all of you who have renewed/sbuscribed. You have critically helped support the Cause, which is the continued development of a new science that will require a modification of modern physics. No small task. I am just the initial catalyst. Think in simple terms what the
TAO 5 does: planetary pair separations are inputted into given mathematical formulae, and, the output is a graph that parallels the SP 500 (global equity indexes) to greater than 1:10,000 against chance. And this has been published, 6+ years now, real-time. The development and sophistication and statistical significance of the TAO 5 continues to increase. And new software is on the way so that everyone can know what comprises the TAO 5, how it works, and best of all, be able to personally modify all of its parameters according to your own creative insights and interests..ajoint, collaborative, scientific project. The TAO 5 is now much more than any one person can effectively cope with. I both need and want help. Today, 123 on the SPY is still possible. If so, our position will be reassessed.
12/ 19, MONDAY, both the 2 TAO 5 2012 Graphs, and the 2012 Forecast will be mailed.
12/ 15 2000: There is hope. The Dec SP futures may rally to 123-124+. The higher , the better. TAO 5 Graphs and 2012 Forescast mailing imminent...enjoy...
0740: All the numbers news was positive this am, being frontrun by the futures and then extending gains. Today is a healthy start to a probable 2 day reflation retracement of some of the recent declines. Tomorrow more likely for an adjustment to somc's current position.
12/ 14 1920: As one of the bonuses of this now open, soon to be closed, site: if SPY rallies to the 124+/-- level, somc will buy SDS. If 125-126+, probably BGZ.
I am am a thorough optimist; beyond that, a PRAGMATIST. Hence, the decisions and the results. I am unambiguous. Correct about 80%, Incorrect about 20%.
The significance lies in how I deal with the Incorrectness. That requires immediate, decisive, and reliable reversasals. That I do. That is experience in action.
0700: On Monday, the Euro and Eurozone equties broke down; that continues through this am. Yesterday, USBonds went through the upper BBand. And today, all global equities are pressing or breaking through the lower BBand. The inexorable trends continue. The Astro composite (TAO 5) concurs. somc is well positioned to profit from these trends. The Global Central Banks, regardless of their "wealth", are powerless to counter the trends, driven by Developed nations' demographics, deleveraging and the forces of the Global recession/depression. Dick Bove yesterday lowered his Goldman Sachs projections by 66%. That is not only significant, but also probably very close to being accurate. Draw your own analogies and conclusions. For the US, after all the revisions, Q4 is still likely to print negative. At the latest, Q1 2012.
12/ 13 1800: A 9 hour--suited for an ending. As of 12/ 16/ 2011, Friday, the detailed trading notes on this page will cease.
These notes have been open to everyone for a long time, and now these Notes will be expanded, Daily, for subscribers only. For Traders, 2 time frames.
1-3 days. And 1-10 days. On occasion, as in August and early October, the Trades may sustain longer. SOMC is an 18 Year Perma Bear, beginning 2000.
Results: Us Treasuries +30%, Hedge Funds +2% (average), SP 500 --10+%. These Trends will accentuate/accelerate. These Historic Times have just begun........
1200: SPY stopped at 125.57, short of the minimum 126 for an somc sell, and indicating a weak market. Globally, euqities are mixed/indecisive into the FED.
I have a pressing business appointment at 13:30, and will only see the reaction to the FED after the fact. Weekly to Monthly, deflation/lower prices rule.
0750: Yesterday, during the last hour, higher Equities today became likely, and the question remained how the market would respond to weaker-than-expected Retail Sales. Result: Positive. Momentum is daily negative, however 12/12 saw equities come down to moving average support, hold, and rally. Therefore it is most likely that the upper Bollinger Band will be tested = SPY about 126-127, depending upon how long it takes to rally there. This am's rally is now likely to continue Through the FED. The Retail sales trend paralleled the declining earnings epectations: Sep 1.1%, Oct 0.6%, and Nov 0.2%. Ditto Best Buy, only magnified = --32% yty.
For the 2012 TAO 5 Graphs (2000-2012 and 2007-2012) and 2012 Forecast, I added the option of a 2 month trial ($50), than includes the TAO 5 Graphs and Forecast.
12/ 12 0730: The somc Weekend Note for subscribers emphasized the Bearish dominance of the Weekly and Monthly Tends. Recessionary/Deflationary/Deleveraging Forces are Primary. I expected some upside this am, but that is not happening. The Eurozone and China continue to deteriorate (ignore political hype). US GDP will come very close to a negative print in Q4/Q1 after final revisions are in. Round #2 of Depression 2.0 is underway. This time, however, even the emerging markets will be severly hit, leading to major Global unrest. How to benefit??? Buy the Bearish ETFs--SH, SDS, BGZ, QID, FAZ, RWM, DXD, etc. to name a few. These ETFs rise in value as Equities fall in price. Where are we Economically? As a time, price and critical mass analog--about August 2008, and moving in fast-forward.
As far as I am aware, there is not in Print any Real-Time Astro RoadMap like the 100% Quantitative Directional TAO 5. It measures Global Psychology and Correlates with major International Equtiy Indexes to greater than 1:10,000 against chance. When the TAO 5 rise, equity prices rise. When the TAO 5 falls, equity prices decline.
And the TAO 5 at the present time is clear, precise and definitive as to where Equities are headed going into 2012. December 18 is the TAO 5 mailing for subscribers.
12/ 09 0600: The release of theTAO 5 2012 Graph and 2012 Forecast is planned for December 18, via land mail (best quality).
All this will be sent to 2012 Subscribers. Please check Astrologer Market (the default home page) for specifics ($195 USD/Year). Payment can be by check, money order, cahshiers check or my PayPal account.
Most primary Global ETFs are in an sell island. A 50% retracement higher would be a normal result for today--a relation day. More Eurozone reflection and delay. The reality and consequent pain has yet to to fundamentally addressed. From an initial ECRI Recession signal (late Sep), a rally of 10-15% frequently follows, Before the Plunge. We're pressing the +15% level. Thank you all for your concern and kind comments--things are better than ok, and improving...
12/ 02 0600; What looks likely, is a higher open, higher sustained midday, then a miserable close, into next week and next year. This may be my last note. So be it.
12/ 01 0730: Tomorrow is the more determinate day. somc is looking for a major top within 2 weeks. It may have been yesterday; regardless it is soon.
The TAO 5 for 2012 is very clear; and the first half of 2012 for equities is not pleasant (lower stocks/commodities/hard assets; higher USDollar and TLT (US Bonds)).
11/ 30 0630: In the longer Universal cycle, nothing that we are/do matters. It all expands into Nothingness. SPY 122 still remains likely.
11/ 29 0630: The rise in equities Monday until now has SPY near overhead resistance at 122.00. Higher today into tomorrow, then lower into Friday's US jobs numbers.
Mars becomes increasingly negative toward Jupiter and Saturn and Nodes during December.
11/ 28 0730: Everything that I posted since 11/ 23 was lost. Bottom line 11/ 23 was a stop-out. And today, for equities, will probably evolve into a Buy breakaway island.
11/ 23 0800: Worse than expected. Plus an error in a decimal point yesterday. Hence, an early exit. That's part of 50% slippage. We still do ok...
11/ 22 0600: New Astro Note above. Japan's exports --3.7% yty. www.econintersect.com, yesterday, 11/21/11, had excellent articles on the CFNAI and Housing markets.
Housing, given the demographics of the Globally wealthy, has a long (years) way to go before stabilizing. Housing is a major, yet only one, contributing factor to the current global economic climate. An panacea it is Not. Japanese exports are another indicator of internal China weakness. To repeat, US, Eurozone, China (Japan) are All in Recession. The challenge (unlikely to succeed) will be to avoid Depression. As I wrote 3 years ago, my view is that Globally, we are in Depression 2.0. Is that relavent to somc...a little...but not much. Tides come in and tides go out. somc rides the waves (sometimes wishing it was the 90 footer that one gentleman rode...). Consistent over time...which brings us to the main topic of the day, the CFNAI. I look at the chart/data slightly differently than econintersect. If you smooth out the data even more--to 1 year--there is a clearly pattern. The yearly average change in directions only occur prior to or coincident with major changes in economic/stock direction.
The yearly rolled over lower a few months ago = coincident with our monthly indicators (now, reaffirmed by the Weekly) signal of a Bear Market. The CFNAI, using 85 weighted indicators, is one of the best, if not the best, Coincident Indicators in existence. HP is another clue. Stupor Committee is another. Etc. Globally, for the next 1 1/2 years, global "leaders" will be powerless against the Jupiter/Saturn and Saturn/Uranus cycles. Down hard assets go; unless invested in SH, SDS, BGZ or similar...
11/ 21 0700: VEU (all-world, ex-US) is and has been weak. Deflationary pressures are dominant today, with UUP/TLT higher, and all else lower.
11/ 18 1300: Given current economic times, even 2008 is ancient. I have alluded to Apr/May 2008 to now. Still applies. Although accelerated.
Today's activity is weak. I care more about the global dynamics than the profit. 2012 will not be pleasant for most individuals. somc will do ok.
0630: Raise Stop Close Only to entry price: $40.95. Two days of contra-trend rally = normal. About 0.5 to1% per contra-trend day. While the scenario for 2012 is apparent, both subjectively and objectively (Tao), and for somc profits will be almost automatic, the overview is depressing. Global Recession is already a reality. As far as I can see, a Global Depression (a magnitude or two higher than Recesssion) is unavoidable. Both developed nations demographics And continuing Delevaging are ther two primary Forces at work. Inexorable and Merciless. Technically, the Euro had its Exhaustion island at 142, and resold at 138 recently, along with Gold. China's official Econ Data is unreliable. For certain, China's Real-estate, both private and commercial, is Declining. We just don't know by how much nor how fast = Recession (Dr. Copper from way back). It's all very serious. I don't use the D word lightly.
somc is looking to leverage, Monday possible.
11/ 17 1200: I have completed the 2012 TAO 5. 2012 is a very clear, bifurcated year. Subscribers, we are in the correct position.
0300: Raise Stop, close only, to 40.75. Off to a positive start. Thank you Contagion = Reality= Recognizing the unviability of the current Eurozone system, and the untenable exposure Eurzone/International Banks have to the escalating Eurozone debt crisis. Credit spreads and Interest rates now at record high levels.
On ASTROLOGY CHARTS,the Eclipse 11/25 is new, and has Preliminary comments.
11/ 16 0530: This am, overnight, SP futures went from higher to 1% lower, largely on the UK's King direct and somber comments. UK unemployment rose from 7.9% to 8.3%--shades of the US and Eurozone to come. The ECB is buying Eurozone bonds, especially Spanish bonds. The gorilla has entered the room. Yesterday's SP rally helped. The last 1/2 hr was revealing = sharp decline.
11/ 15 0630: Technically, if futures are selected in Barchart, ESZ11 (sp), ZNZ11 (10yr), GCZ11 (gold), etc., for the 108min template, in the Minutes box, type 240, and it will override the standard 108 for the template. The resulting chart will be far more useful.
0620: Eurozone + 0.2% gdp, and falling. The decline in China's inflation rate also = Recession. ECRI, me and others: US = Recession. The last 2 days, evening into the US day, has produced an SP with weaker behavior than normal. Given overnight and this am's futures, this is now probably (70%) the beginning of a serious decline. The Daily charts have now joined the 108min on a Sell. A low risk entry of SDS is now problematic.
11/ 14 0640: The Overview imperative is Recession, Global. ECRI gave its signal 9/26, with SP at 1160. The typical temporary post-signal rally has been 10%.
1160 +10% = 1276. The Sell Island top was 1280. My numbers agree. There is almost no viable upside potential from here. Recessionary/Deflation forces are at work.
0630: Coming back online, and thankful. When the SP futures were +6 last evening = a low risk Sell. Now, being lower, a confirmed Sell. Oct 27-28 completed an ideal Exhaustion Sell Island. Since then there has been 2 major lower highs, including last evening into this am. The 108 charts have a Sell. The Daily is very close to confirming...all it needs is time. Eurozone is still in deep unresolved crisis. Leaders are exercising Pain Avoidance = natural, however ineffective. The Tao 5 peaks at this time frame, and is lower beginning Mid--Dec. A trade is possible. Last week unfolded as expected.
I updated the Notes and Stats page to include the monthly and quarterly 2011 results.
11/ 13 1300: Yes. Alive! Diagnoses: Pnuemonia and Hyponatremia (low sodium. Na = 122). The combination was almost lethal...almost. Very, very close. Now, ok.
11/ 07 0330: Illness and a necessay hospitalization. Hopefully, a positive (alive) resolution Thank you for your patience
11/ 02 0700: Consolidation day. Trade is ok. FED likely to be a neutral. And I am very ill--resting as much as possible.
10/ 24 0700: An irony is that the US is not AAA, and France is; and the latter is about to implode, along with Greece, Itally, Spain, and, Trickly Down, Germany.
I yield, with full respect, to Tyer Durden, of www.zerohedge.com, for further commentary. Technically, there are 3 primary types of gaps: Breakaway, Extension, and Exhaustion. US equities are processing the last of 2 Exhaustion Gaps in succession.
10/ 21 0700: Globally, we are already in Recession = similar to the Mar-May 2008 phase. The excesses in both Eurozone and China over the last few years now will produce Global pain. Deleveraging and contraction continues into 2013.
10/ 19 0725: David Rosenberg, Lakshman Achuthan (ECRI), and Tom DeMark are all thinking like I am. Recession.
10/ 18 0600: I am back from a health adjustment--medications. Now, ok.
10/ 11 0700: Use exponential ma's as well. One very simple exp ma's, for daily work, is the 25. As with Every ma, it goes through it's periodic very rapid jigggles and drawdowns. The best way I have found to smooth that is through blending the 25 day average with the MACD and CCI.
0420: Given the release of the tao, I think the best planetary pair selection that I have found is:
AE,AG,AI,AK,AM,AO,AQ,AS,EJ,ET,FB,FD,FF,FR/3,GM/5,FX/10,FZ/10. Try it, and zero it how you wish, with any of the longer parameter columns.
10/ 07 1200: The DOW 30 I do not respect at all as an index. It would be best abandoned and restructured. However, Dow Jones did create the Global DOW that I do respect and observe. Easiest is on www.marketwatch.com Similar to global futures. Global deflation and deleveraging will continue to dominate.
10/ 06 0740: Steve Jobs (with Wozniak initially) helped to transform the Globe into what communication is now.
Astrological Notes: 11/ 22/ 2011:
11/ 22 0500: Exactness of an aspect is only one point among many. There is "orb" with an aspect's effects effect waxing and waning before and after exactness. Using 19 planetary pairs exceeds the ability of most human minds to "eyeball" what the composite result is. Bottom line, just because there may be an exact Mars/Jupiter square, doesn't imply at all that the TAO 5 is negative. It is critical to remember that the TAO 5 was developed to be a scientific tool...it is independent of "astrology". Over the last 5 years of Real-Time publishing and tracking/correlating the SP 500 (SPY), the TAO 5 continues to be of merit. It is a Real-Time, directional Astro Index.
When any Market Indicator shows greater than 1:1,000 statisitcal results against chance, over a greater than 10 year period, I pay attention. I, personally, neither want to support nor deny the TAO 5. It is what it is. I happened to be given the task (and it was an immense amount of work over 25+ years) of evolving it. And the current TAO 5 is maybe only 1/3 to 1/2 of what it could be...
09/ 15 1000: The largest human effect from the July Eclipse has been in/near Bangladesh = massive monsoon flooding. For that country the Eclipse had Vertex (my major angle) near the Eclipse near the MC. Near the DESC was Eris, suggesting a Neptune-like effect = wet and malefic (disillusioning). The Saturn/Uranus/Pluto/Eris/Eclipse/Node Cardinal Cross/Square also has had its influence.
04/ 10 1400: The Japan Quake, coincident with Solar Flares, is a foretaste. Mars conj. Jupiter and opp. Saturn will do its work.
Chiron/Neptune conj. continues to play havoc with everything fluid (NE) related to money (CH). This includes floods (Japan), agriculture (crop viability) , and oil. Mars and Venus will attack the Node this week into next, exacerbating problems.
WEEKLY GOLD: 09/ 15/ 2011: There are repeated periods of vulnerability in Gold. They do not happen often, but they do happen. And one of these periods is Now. Visually and technically these periods happen when price exceeds the MACD momentum measure by "too much". Without going into the statisitcs, these periods were MAR 2009, NOV 2009, NOV 2010 and NOW. Each of these resulted in negative price action, a several month period of building a new Bull Base, then the eventual move to higher highs.
The current extreme is so great that the negative price action is likely to be both longer and stronger than the previous corrections.
Compare 2000 equity action and volatility.
WEEKLY: Copper (since I was in the health care profession, Dr. Copper)
Almost self-explanatory. As with Gold. current 2011 Copper top is very vulnerable. Support down at 3.60.
WEEKLY CHARTS (as applicable):
SP 500, as of 09/ 15/ 2011. The first sign of a trend change (from Bull to the current Bear) was the sustained 3 week break below support in June. The subsequent July "rally" failed to reach new highs (nor upper Bollinger Bands). Once support was broken for the second time in August, the decline in equity prices was not only severe, but also initiated this New Bear Market. For further clarification of the negative trend, you can also add the next series of squares to the Moving Averages: 36wk, 49wk and 64wk. For the SP 500, the upper Bear Market rally limit is about 1250-1260
LT4 recontinued: Bear Market rules
LT4 (from 01/01/ 2009) + 101.2%
SDS B 23.70 10/07 1430 23.15 10/10 1430 -- 2.3
SH B 45.52 10/05 0830 44.49 10/07 1430 -- 2.3
MT4 (from 01/01/2010) CDT + 86.8%
ETF B Price Date Time Exit Date Time % +/-
SSO B 41.90 11/22 0840 39.75 11/23 1600 -- 5.1
SH B 40.95 11/16 1030 42.99 11/22 0840 + 5.0
BGZ B 30.00 10/28 1030 31.68 11/ 7 0830 + 5.6
US DOLLAR: (Weekly:) 09/ 19/ 2011;
This chart is not so obvious. The analysis is a derivative of the other three. This is how money flows. UP.
= equities down, copper down, gold choppy to down, and will eventually normalize and equate to inflation/deflation days (inflation =equties and assets UP, all else DOWN) . In the meantime (reverting to the mean), Turbulence. Enjoy, if you will, the Ride.