Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
Trading Notes History:
See below: more additions coming
February 2010: 2/ 5 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: 1) US Debt 10% of GDP, and climbing, 2) Unemployment: US private sector work moving overseas; this is an ongoing 25+ year process: "They can and are doing it better for less". 3) De-Mobility (decreased productivity and competitiveness): In the year 1950, about 20% of people moved. Now, that's only 12%...being under "Housing arrest", underwater, frozen in place. 4) Increasing foreclosures for both Private and Commercial Real-estate. Strategic defaults ("walking away to rent better for less")...a new norm
5) US Gov is now a larger employer (22m) than the Private Goods Producing sector (18m)
In 1950: US Gov ( 5m) " (10m)
Worse: US Gov sector averages: $39.83/hr total compensation ($26.24 for wages and $13.60 for benefits)
US Private Sector: $27.49/hr total compensation ($19.45 for wages and $ 8.05 for benefits) BLS stats.
6) The US FED continues to be an enemy of savers, close to zero interest on the safest maturities, promoting speculation and risk.
The US DEBT CLOCK ticks.
YES
3/ 31 0940: EWG is now a sell at 21.92. Minimum 10% downside.
3/ 11 0600: USA Today, 3/5/10, wrote "It pays to work for Uncle Sam". Average government job salary and benefits: $108,476/yr. The average private sector job: $69,928/yr. And now with 23m gov jobs vs 18m goods producing jobs...efficiency?
3/ 3 0600: On www.businessinsider.com in their Money Game Select part, there are several articles of note. The titles: 1) Europe falling into deflation, 2), China has huge public sector debt problem, 3) The British Pound, the rout will be ugly, 4) The lie behind Japan's unemployment numbers (like the US, unreported drop-outs).
The Developed Nations are experiencing a Demographic/ Debt/ Deleveraging transformation starting with 1999 Free Trade. It wasn't free, and a guaranteed transfer of wealth, employment and living standards (equalization) to emerging nations. This is a 10-20 year process.
YES
APRIL 2010:
.....
4/ 26 1000: Eurozone debt IS "Unraveling" AND Contagious.
4/ 23 1100: When the Euro ecstasy wears off (soon), somc will likely again be selling EWG, EFA, SLV. For now, no clear direction
4/ 21 1300: Phase 1 of deflation is complete, with rebound rally. When Gold ads disappear, Phase 2 will complete.
1100: GS, while significant, is minor. Greece, Portugal, etc., Europe = Major, globally. The Debt clock is ticking...
0930: Along the same line, Hard commodities will also decline. Today, stocks to open lower, go positive, then break lower for a deflation day.
4/ 20 0740: "Extend and pretend" will continue until it doesn't. Two indicators that I developed in the mid-80's were at support early 4/ 19.
4/ 19 1110: somc is deleveraging, and will go back into a position of SS both QQQQ and XLF, likely soon. Merkel has compromised the integrity of the whole European economic system. Bunds must now rise in yield, and fall in price, similar to when the Eastern European Wall fell in 1989. 0600: Both ash and Goldman fallout. Deflation day: Higher Bonds/USD. The "Unraveling" of "extend and pretend". USD/Bonds higher, all else lower.
4/ 12 0930: Howard Davidowitz: Wall St.-DC Bigwigs "Buried our country..They sold us down the river".
4/ 2 0645 McJobs translate into lowed standards of living long term. In the US, local and state governments that have over-spent (90+%) must balance budgets by cutting gov. workers, and into McJobs they go. They can use savings & IRAs for awhile, then strategic default becomes more of a necessity (and temporarily improves their cash flow--they can keep spending.) The Greece bailout has fewer serious backers.
YES
MAY 2010
5/ 24--28 0800: Vacation: IL to CA, scenic routes.
5/ 21 0800: Welcome to Depression 2.0. slowed and aggravated by Stimulus--delayed and magnified.
5/ 20 1430: SAFETY FIRST.
5/17 0730: Until proved differently: 1) Stock trend lower, 2) Deflation intact, 3) JUKUS (Japan, UK, US) feeling the PIIGS effects, 4) Lack of disclosure in a) the Oil spill, b) Fannie/Freddie/FHA, c) FED, d) Federal and State (also Sovereign) budget deficits, etc., ongoing. Simple = buying SH & SDS.
5/ 14 0900: Euro = Zero. Global Competitive Currency Devaluation is an ongoing process. somc sees a 2nd leg down in real estate (private & commercial) and Global GDPs.
5/ 13 1130: FFFG: (Fannie,Freddie,FHA,Ginnie, et al.) are voracious Black Holes of Tax dollars.
5/ 11 Ratings Agencies: censored, censored, censored....
Housing continues to decline. And why work when the extended unemployment benefit exceeds McJobs wages?
5/ 7 0540: The US and developed nations fiscal pinch emerges when the Federal, State and Local governments eliminate workers, a process that extendsl into 2011-2012.
5/ 4 1300: Global economic restructuring has never happened before. The wealth of the Developed nations will continue to flow to Emerging Markets for another 10 years. Developed nation's sovereign debt is increasingly risky. The US and Canada are immune for awhile. Global Developed nations de-leveraging is in ongoing, with Demographics adding to the effect.
Depressions last a Long time; and initially, they tend to be underestimated, as Depression 2.0 (this one) has been.
5/ 3 0730: The US comes to Eurozone's rescue (again), through the IMF funding a temporary and fragile Greece bailout. The resulting decline in the Euro is sufficient commentary. Eventually, the Euro = zero as is, or be re-structured.
YES
JUNE 2010:
6/ 30 1510: 2004-06 Greenspan: "gradually raise rates", summer 2007 Bernacke: "subprime contained", fall of 2008 Paulson: "Give me the money", Bernacke 2009-2010: "We Are giving you (Banks) the money" (0.25 borrow, 3% earn)). etc.
0700: Perspective: $8 trillion in housing equity has evaporated since the 2006 peak; maybe there is $1 trillion in "stimulus". Which is larger? Lost "perceived wealth" of that magnitude changes behavior over time = saving more, spending less, consolidating households, into 2012 at least. And it is Deflationary. Fortunately, the US has large wealth and safety-net cushions left. Eurozone = first major domino to fall, with both debt crises and civil unrest.
Markets: Stocks: weakness prevails. Bonds/USD higher. Gold has probably peaked. AGs are still Bullish.
6/ 29 1330: MT4 and LT4 are now have equal ETF. The difference is periodicity = time. MT4 daily charts; LT4 weekly.
0930: On 5/ 7 I wrote: "June's economic numbers will show consumer contraction." The XLY decline preceded this am's Consumer Confidence drop. Both Eurozone and China are in crisis. China selectively releases info; Eurozone then forced. US to follow. Then the Real Pain begins. 0730: The SSO & TBT trades will lose today. They are instructive. It is becoming more likely again that stocks are vulnerable to a quick (1-3 weeks) decline, globally. In Bear markets, either being out, or buying SH (earning from an SP500 decline) is safest. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is new, and a reliable leading indicator of GDP. It says "double-dip", or as somc put it, Also, the ECRI combined with USA Today's leading index, and the TAO 4 = we're already into the next serious decline. The Solar Eclipse is being felt.
6/ 28 1200: Today, Yahoo, Special Features (bottom middle), "Warning--Even Bernacke Sees Trouble Ahead". somc agrees almost quote for quote. 1000: Gold = Risk. somc can trade Gold; it doesn't. DZZ was a buy at 0900, and now more so. Gold, similar to Oil, is a NY futures market = risk. 0740: G20 = FED = non-action.
TAO 4 global psychology index (along with the Bradley model) are in steep decline into September. Even the perennial optimist Bernacke (2007: "...the sub-prime crisis is contained...") is becoming realistic in his growth expectations = "lower".
6/ 25 0740: GDP revised lower. Citibank says downgrades on US, Canada, Eurozone, Australia, China and Asia likely...
The 7/11 Solar Eclipse occurs during the 1st serious Q2 earnings week = evaporating "expectations & guidance".
6/ 24 1420: Into Sep, somc is deflationary. 1300: Plagues (both infectious, as in CA whooping cough, and critters, as in locust, grasshoppers Asian carp, etc.) = some Solar eclipse effects. It is Pluto/Rahu/Ketu amplified by Eclipse Sun/Moon.
6/ 23 1330: Previous notes stand. As of 1/1/2011, it is likely that somc notes will go to a weekly format. The TAO Science preempts economics. 1100: "Double Dip" minimizes the Global Economic Re-structuring transpiring. It is Historic. Developed Nations GDP negative 0-2% by 12/2010.
0930: From 6/21/10 into Sep 2010: Stocks 20-40% lower, Bonds higher, Gold (metals) 20% lower (in USD), Oil 20% lower, AGs 20% higher. China (Yuan) is defending its Euro risk. For the US, competitive currency devaluation now no longer works = Overt Protectionism next. The QUICK, SLOW AND TAO 4 are now declining into September. The TAO 4 has 1:10,000 statistical reliability. Global psychology is deteriorating.
1030: Housing in leg 2 lower. "Powerlessness of those in Power". In France, way back when, a solution evolved, "Off with their Heads...".... 0700: Some indicators aside from the TAO that I follow are Zillow and RealtyTrac housing data, Existing Home Sales, Housing starts, Multiple Leading Indicators, Durables, Jobs, Retail Sales, & Personal income and spending.
6/ 22 1200: TAO 4, theoretically, is a COINCENDENT indicator. PLANET's positions are KNOWN, and, therefore, can be PROJECTED into the future.
6/ 21 0730: The G20 met, and no action. Eurozone still in crisis. This week Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods, and the FED FOMC. The Lunar Eclipse is now in effect. Stocks: closer to the end of this commodity rally than the beginning. Today, choppy higher, with AGs (RJA) and Oil (USO) in close pursuit. Added Econ note: M3 is contracting, similar to the 30's.
6/ 18 0900: seekingalpha.com, Doug Short, "The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index". A reliable Leading Indicator of GDP, and other economic conditions.
0730: Destabilizing will dominate between now and September. 2nd major leg down in Housing and Commercial RE (--20% MORE from here), Adverse conditions for Crops (RJA Higher), US States and some Sovereigns with solvency concerns, China civil Worker Unrest (protests and srikes).
6/ 17 1310: To simplify: The Hedge and HFT dominate.
6/ 16: 0910: Again, seekingalpha, TraderMark, "Default, Not Thrift, Will Pare US debt". Yes, addictions live on.
Life-support can be sustained for years, until an infection de-stabilizes the delicate balance.
6/ 15 1230: M3 (John Williams, and Shadowstats) is contracting similar to the 1930's. And it is a 100% indicator = never failed to forecast a NEGATIVE DGP.. ECRI is currently 80% probable. Cycles are almost 100% probable. And TAO 4 is almost 100% probable. somc has been in Depression mode since 11/08.
0800: Currently the global economy is on life-support, especially the developed nations. The approximate 18 year cycle of De-leveraging (beginning about 2000-2001) continues. Life-support is extended unemployment benefits, artificially low interest rates (feeding the imminent inflation burst), delayed Global Government "austerity" measures, US "off-budget" items, delayed finance reform, increasing wealth gap (similar to 1929: the US upper class 10% control 71.5% of US wealth), delayed medicare and social security reform (refer to the various underfunded "Ponzi's", Pensions, etc.). Before the plugs are pulled, stocks have a commodity rally = the finale.
0630: Median real household incomes are likely to end the 2000-2010 decade lower, reversing a 30+ year trend. Also, homeowner equity has dropped from its $14.5T peak in 2005 to $6.3T end 2009. And we're not done yet. For several more years to come, this will continue to mean downsizing and/or less real disposable income. Add to that 10-20% Local, State and Federal Government cuts, commercial real estate crunch, health care cost increases, debt compounding, tax increases, etc. and we have extended economic difficulties. And now OIL.
6/ 14 0800: AGs (RJA) went Bullish 6/11. As with the New Moon and Astro Econ Perspective notes on 6/ 12, somc projects a 2 month rally in stocks, hard and soft commodities and support from rebounding technical factors (such as the 12/16 moving averages turning up). The largest casuality will be Bonds/USD.
.....6/ 11 0740: A few days after the Deepwater Horizon, somc "x10 worse than Valdez".
6/ 10 0630: Volatility.
6/ 9 0700: Tarballs on the Thames...
6/ 8 0700: Same
6/ 7 0700: Status quo.
6/ 4 1030: The FED is a bank. Banks support banks. Wilson regretted the decision in 1913 to create the FED. Harding was the last US President to act with courage with the FED...He, in conjunction with the FED, let Debt Contract. Economic growth in the 1920's followed. Volcker acted on his own merit. In contrast, Fiat Greenspan begat Fiat Bernacke and henchmen.
0920: The Pension and Debt obligation Ponzi schemes continue to grow. CA, NY and IL cannot meet their obligations.
0630: Recurrent themes: 1) In Depression 2.0, 2) De-Leveraging OECD as the most powerful economic force Globally, 3) Developed nations Debt maxed, 4) Payments coming due, 5) Major defaults of all kinds into 2011-2012, 6) Developed nations Un- and Underemployment rates to sustain/exceed 20%, & 7) Cycles declining together,
6/ 3 0630: Fitch is only 5 weeks late on its BP downgrade. Eurozone CDS spreads are rising = increased risk perception.
6/ 2 1000: 2.9 years too late. Ratings: July 2007 somc wrote: "Ratings Fraud and Scandal...No jail time?".
Stocks: 18 days of choppy consolidation. Dangerous, and somc has largely been on the sidelines. Safety first.
0700: Sites and Authors. Seekingalpha.com: (alphabetical) Bespoke, Harrison, Lounsbury, Nausbaum, Pragmatic Capitalist, Rosenthal, Suttmeier, Wachtel, White. BusinessInsider.com, various articles. ZeroHedge.com Tyler Durden and crew. Harrison featured an article by Frederick Sheehan entitled: "Greenspan: A Fiat Mind for a Fiat Age". NYTimes on Rent Free Foreclosures, and by David Einhorn, "Easy Money, Hard Truths.
6/ 1 1200: After the market closes, the New Passwords will be sent.
YES
JUL 2010
...
7/ 30 0750: GDP: Consumer spending (70% of US economy, and therefore global demand) lower, savings rate higher; less demand = lower prices =Deflation, as reflected in the lower PCE numbers. $8 Trillion lost in housing equity over the last 3 years impacts lifestyles and promotes frugality, by choice and/or necessity. The US Depression 2.0, for the Developed Nations (or 3.0 if the 1870's are included) has much longer to manifest in full. Buying SH profits through lower stock prices.
0700: Prior to GDP. Debt, DeLeveraging, Demographics, Devaluing of Assets (Deflation) in Stocks (20-40+% lower), Housing (20+% lower), CRE (20+% lower), etc. Buy SH.
7/ 29 0740: As in the Astro Note, the next 3-4 weeks intensify the Cardinal Cross's impact, with multiple "events" likely that impact economics and global stability.
7/ 28 0740: The protective aspects of the Solar Eclipse will yield to its more inherent negativity by worsening transits.
7/ 27 0800: A sell signal is possible today for FLEX (momentum).
7/ 26 0530: Daily charts are now Bullish, with Weekly still Bearish. somc Guesstimate, we are near stock highs.
7/ 23 0730: Stocks: peaking early, reversing to lower close. Commodities weaken. USD/Bonds strengthen.
7/ 22 0800: Stops lowered to 6890 close.
7/ 21 0730: On businesinsider.com, MoneyGame section, "Banks can't hold back high-end mortgage foreclosures for long".
7/ 20 0700: The Euro completed a Sell Island (as stocks did 7/15) yesterday. This is negative for Stocks and Hard commodities, being deflationary. China aided the rally, in an indirect devaluing the Yuan move. China's growth is slowing. No dictatorship has ever avoided economic collapse, and this year is critical. somc projects overt protectionism against China's Yuan manipulation (not a level playing field, by at least 30%) as Developed nations enter into this next serious economic leg lower.
7/ 19 0600: U of M confidence dropped = TAO sharply declining into September. Global psychology: moving from optimism toward pessimism rapidly.
7/ 16 0500: On the road all day. No changes. Some weeks are like this--adverse for the somc positions.
7/ 15 1130: Gold is politically maneuverable. Bottom line: there has never been a "stable currency"; they all come and go like the wind and gold. somc invests primarily by buying SPY, SSO, SH, SDS and adjuncts. Diversity is inherent within those 4 ETF buys. I wrote 2 notes for the next ISAR email newsletter. ECRI, LEI, etc....compare with real-time astrological effects = TAO 4.
7/ 14 1430: Status quo. Islands improving. Jupiter Saturn effect and Eclipse and USA progressed = Forces. DeLeveraging and Contraction. 1030: Several problems. 1) MT4 and LT4 will have the 8th ETF as RJI or RJA (items or food). RJA bought on 6/4 at 6.68. RJI bought on 7/13 at 7.04. 2) RJI and RJA drive the profits of related companies = hence the current rally. As somc suggested earlier, RJA (agriculture) has a probability of revisiting 2008. Longer term, as Water dries up, both China AND India become large Importers. Presently, only the US, Canada and Brazil can meet that import need. Brazil is destroying the Amazon. The "exploitation" fruits have been picked (benefiting US, Canada, and other sustainable AG countries 3) Budget and Trade Balance deficits reach a limit. Both Oil Dependency and Yuan 30+% Undervaluation are 2 issues. Neither are sustainable. 4) somc is lengthening into Longer term: MT4 = Weeks to Months, LT4 = Months to Years, Flex = daily based Momentum. 5) We have yet to experience an explicit Eclipse event. 6) Today is establishing a Sell Island for stocks.
7/ 13 1230: Macro: Oil use globally is inexcusible and self-destructive. Water and Food are at risk.
1030: 1000: Corporations (stocks) can improve profit (cutting employees and other costs) while the general public experiences increasing misery...happened in the 30's...
7/ 12 0530: The ruling party in Japan lost over the weekend--Eclipse effects. In the Developed Nations, Debt is constricting new "stimulus" attempts. Like a sugar high, stimulus programs leave debt laden nations worse off than they were before. Today, businessinsider.com, Clusterstock select, article by Michael David White: "Pending Home Sales...". Housing has and is more than double-dipping; fannie and freddie are as somc wrote: "black holes of taxpayer dollars."
7/ 9: Birthday time. China's leadership is lagging behind its own growth/demand/resource curve.
7/ 8 1400: Over the next month, there will be one "critical event" after another--not just one. "Sentiment", = the TAO 4's astrological transiting impact on everyone's lives, deteriorates into negative territory. Hope transforms into fear and despair.
0730: The Euro will need re-structuring. The Euro/Yen spread will maintain its high correlation with US and Eurozone stocks.
7/ 7 1400: Norway and Germany are setting the new economic standard. Fiscal prudence.
1200: RJI, with RJA, is Portfolio important. The somc Buys were 6/4.
7/ 6 1330: The TAO 4 and the Jupiter/Saturn research paper establish, beyond 1:10,000 against chance (greater than the Gauquelin's significance) that Transiting Planetary positions relate to stock prices. The scientific validity of progressions, returns (precessed and non-precessed), new moons, eclipses, directions, and the multiplicity of new Solar System "planets" yet remains to be proven. Grains still bullish. TBT normalizing.
0700: India EPI and Singapore EWS ETF charts are still strong. Russell IWM and Mid-cap MDY are ready to rally. The Solar Eclipse is ushering in a several month period of increasing volatility and "critical moments".
7/ 1 1300: I am almost ditto with David Rosenberg. The biggest exception is Gold. somc is Bearish Gold (6/30 note: "Gold has probably peaked")(and Bullish USD after it corrects), so a Bull on US Bonds and US Cash, Bull on Agriculture (C, O, S, BO, W, etc.), and a Bear on everything else. SAFETY IS PARAMOUNT. "Bad" can and will become "worse". There has been Unprecendented Competitive Currency Devaluation. It is warfare. The most self sufficient nations will suffer the least damage.
....yes
AUGUST 2010:
...
TRADING NOTES:
...AUG 2010
8/ 30 1200: Time frames and magnitude. $8 trillion and counting has been lost in US Consumer equity/wealth via housing value decline. The US Consumer still powers the Global economy. This wealth decline is coincident with the Developed nations Demographic peak. Translated, the wealth decline, at a critical moment, is irreversible for a minimum of 5+ years.
8/ 27 0930: As per the 8/25 1100 note, Bonds. TBT is an excellent ETF to hedge Bond exposure.
8/ 26 1200: Discipline, over time. Executed trades, with probabilites, over time, work. In the battlefield of trades, most work and some don't. Methodology comes from both insight and experience...what works reliably over time.
0740: A reflation day: higher Stocks, etc., lower Bonds/USD. 8/ 25 was a stock outside reversal higher.
8/ 25 0740: Durables were "below expectations". Lower Stock/higher Bond open.
8/ 24 1000: Along the "Off with their heads" theme, the wealthy are not immune. As in previous somc notes for months now, housing prices likely 10-20+% lower from Here, higher end homes even more so. Today, www.seekingalpha.com , Doug Short, "Consumer Metrics Growth Index Update: Signalling Red Alert?". somc = Yes. TBT. Mercury Retrograde is already having a significant impact.
0730: Deflation day: lower stocks, euro, euro/yen, gold, oil, hard & soft commodities. Higher Bonds & USD. At this juncture, danger lurks. "Overbought/oversold" indicators (Stochastics, MACDs, RSIs) become risky to trust.
8/ 23 1300: The astro note highlights Saturn. Saturn dominates, especially with Rahu/Ketu. Saturn square USA Moon will contract public sentiment (as has been in the indicators already) , public services, and into October, outright revolt.
8/ 20 1200: Policies will fail, and heads will roll. Marvin Clark (today on seeking alpha), David Rosenberg and I am long term Bullish on Gold.
1100: Mercury retrograde, in opposition to Jupiter, will highlight how ineffective current global policies are. CCD is War (competitive currency devaluation). Into 2012, most of the debt increases will implode.
8/ 19 0910: Mercury retrograde will sustain a negative focus on Governments/Ism's (ME opposition Jupiter).
8/ 18 0730: This rebound rally is likely to end prior to Mercury retrograde on Friday. TBT now has increased risk.
8/ 17 0740: A reflation day--still digesting the declines from last week. TBT is possible again for Flex.
8/ 16 1330: 2 Primary Zones (Developed: US & Euro) & (Emerging = CIRB: China, India, Russia, Brazil) govern the vitality of the globe. The Developed nations have a Demographic problem, and, therefore, the Emerging do likewise--export dependent. China, now #2 in the globe, has adopted for expedient vs. sustainable policies. CCD (competitive currency devaluation) remains. A dictatorship never falls easily...destabilizing .
0730: 1) Productivity and Inventory cycles have likely peaked. 2) Trade deficit is an increasing negative on GDP. 3) Jobs/Housing = Bleak. 4) The somc forecast months ago was for a negative Q4 GDP...maybe. 5) Stock momentum is decidely negative.
8/ 13 Jupiter/Saturn.
8/ 12 0740: Today's US numbers dropped stock futures. Momentum is now negative, and ma's falling. Gold is contrary.
8/ 11 1500: When 10% control 90% of wealth, Power corrupts. The Yang, power, now controls. The Yin, in cycle, soon emerges.
1200: The 9/1/10 Portfolios will be: 1) Simple, 2) Safe, 3) Effective and 4) Transparent.
0730: A family emergency began yesterday; therefore there will be fewer notes. Portfolios are ok. TBT may be adjusted.
8/ 10 1300: Status quo...the Powerlessness of those in Power. Also, Developing Nations eclipsing Developed, in Education and Technological Innovation. Also little Debt. Low Interest rates Penalize the Prudent and the Savers. GOV favors the Extravagant.
1030: The US aid to states will also support BLOATED pensions, wages, overtime, double-dipping, retirement, etc..
8/ 9 1300: GOLD: GLD,DGP,UUP,DZZ are a Set of ETFs for FLEX. GLD = long Gold; DGP = leveraged x2 long Gold; UUP = Short Gold; and DZZ = leveraged x2 short Gold. Competitive Currency Devaluation is economic warfare. In this economic environment, material resources (water, food, energy, etc.) dominate. Gold, in local currencies, currently, is an artiber.
0730: An unclear picture today. Eurozone is rising more than US futures. Cycles still point lower vs. most technicals higher.
8/ 6 0745: Jobs weaker. Portfolios OK. AGs (RJA) now flat.
8/ 5 0730: Bond prices higher, going into 8/6. Favorable.
8/ 4 1230: LONGER: This Solar Cycle in human impact = unprecedented. To escalate quickly, and endanger satellites.
0730: The USD is due to reverse soon. Adverse weather affecting grains (RJA higher). Bonds are steady = lower stocks.
8/ 3 1200: On 5/18/09, somc wrote: "Gary Schilling: For every 1% Decrease of US Consumer Spending (or increase in savings) there is a 2.8% Decrease in US Imports." US income/spending 1se flat to declining, & savings +1-2% = problematic emerging market "growth". 0600: Psychological pessimism will likely be amplified by impending events. China is faring worse so far with 3 Gorges, Oil, Flooding, etc., problems.
8/ 2 0600: The greatest news of the week will likely come 8/4 through 8/6, when the Sun, Moon, Venus and Mars add negative aspects to the already potent Cardinal Cross. Stocks are setting up for a higher 8/2 into 8/3, with 8/4 through 8/6. Bonds, the inverse. AGs (RJA) still higher.
...YES