Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 8 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 8 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO 8 and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 25+ year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 8 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 8 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic statistically
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 8's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 8, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 8 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 8 now available: 3/ 23/ 14
1) TAO 8 1980-2014 and 1997-2014 graphs with a 2 page explanation
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
2) Subcription: 3/23 Not available ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 8 graphs and explanation
b) Revisions emailed if/when they occur
c) Real-time trading positions and alerts, emailed
d) Weekly commentary and positions on SP 500
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014 until Oct 16, 2014
Russell 2000 %+/-- # #+ #-- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts-- Ave+ Ave-- Ave
x3 169min 57.0% 16 13 3 81 19 61.0 4.0 4.7% 1.3% 3.5%
x2 Daily 19.3% 1 1 0 100 0 19.3 0.0 19.3% 0.0% 19.3%
x1 Weekly 8.5% 1 1 0 100 0 8.5 0.0 8.5% 0.0% 8.5%
Weighted Portfolio 28.2% 18 15 3 83 17 81.8 4.0 5.4% 1.3% 4.3%
Bond ETFs 13.7%. 5 4 1 80 20 17.0 3.3 4.2% 3.3% 2.2%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
10/ 23 0800: All major US indexes, SPY, QQQ, and IWM, as well as GLD, have risen 6% from their climax lows, and with this mornings open, retracing back up to near their 10/21-22 highs. Both VGK (Europe) and GLD are weaker into the US open. Probabilities are mixed. Another equity leg lower will resume, relatively soon. After the climax decline, and 6% V recovery, technically, it will likely take a fews days to set up. Meanwhile, choppy.
10/ 22 0800: The near term upside projections have been met; risk now increases. Astro is mixed short term. The TAO 8 for 2015 is almost completed.
10/ 21 0800: The rally continues. Momentum is still improving, and now has the support of some trend lines (like the 16 & 25dema's). Nearing however some significant overhead resistance. That varies with the index used, but all are close with another 1-2% advance.
10/ 20 0700: Near term, equities have begun a choppy bottoming process. After the US elections, a resumption of the stronger down trend is likely, with another major wave lower into 2015. Then, into early 2015, major problems (crises) will present themselves, resulting in further equity selling.
10/ 17 0700: The probable equity rebound is occurring. Overhead is both near opening levels, and another 2% higher. A selling climax did materialize, and now for a rapid rise; how long? into the US elections in irregular spurts.
10/ 16 1100: For awhile, no new positions. From July until now is adequate, and has added a little bit to the astro, technical trading realms.
10/ 15 1310: At the equity selling climax near 1230cdt, rates didn't push lower. That implied equity support. The TNA position is the last long one allowed by my models, contratrend. Both TNA and TBT are high risk trades that can last for several days of likely very volatile price swings.
0925: After the opening foray, 57.00 was the initial target, and met. Looking for a more stable entry, with a short term bullish bias. Away from the desk now most of the day. To understate the obvious, expect irregular activity. The major players are active. Risk is high.
0750: Today is the real test, whether equities are closer to a temporary wash-out or to extending quickly below the IWM 100 level. As long as Monday's IWM lows hold, a brief rebound remains favored. If not, it's back to the short side.
10/ 14 0850: After the initial buying, TNA re-entered the buying range (less than 56.00). The portfolio is now 100% Long. The 169 model set the buying range, the probability (>80%), the risk (stop), and, if it fails, allows for one more attempt. Bonds are not yet supportive, but likely will be.
0700: Confirmation of an equity rebound did not happen yesterday. It remains close, and maybe today, A buy of the 169m TNA likely. Barring a major "event", a further collapse from current equity levels is unlikely. The cycles suggest a rise into the Nov elections is possible, 2-3 wks. Today, in the office, there is an internet provider change/installation; service is likely to be interrupted periodically.
10/ 13 1430: Now for the next phase. I will use 2 models for the x2 Russell 2000 ETFs: the current daily, and the 169min, and not shorter. From the exit of TNA, the equity portfolio returned to 100% net short, with 1/3 in cash. The close was favorable, with VIX again soaring. Right now, Fear reigns.
0930: TNA is still favored to reverse here. Not the best entry, but still ok. Same with TBT. For both, it is very soon, or take the loss.
0700: Overnight, favorable, with equity selling lessening. For IWM, 108-110 is the near-term attractor. TNA is a counter-trend position.
No sustained declines/bear markets/crashes are alike, and do not happen often. One is happening now. Given the length and extremes of the global Central Banks interventions, the declines will likely test the 2012, then 2009 lows, lasting into 2016.
9/ 14 2000: The forecast equity decline has begun with 80+% reliability now. 1st wave lower Sep-Oct for R2 8+%; a crash now a possibility, meaning a sequence of economic dislocations/defaults threatening market(s) liquidity--central banks being overwhelmed with few (no) viable tools left. The global lows in interest rates have now probably been seen. The bond bear market will have reprieves from falling equities, but won't last. Commodities to continue bearish (in strong currency countries (US/GER/UK)) from weakening demand.
7/ 29 0800: TAO 8 now rapidly declining into end 2014. It is still at a very positive level, however, favoring periodic renewed bursts of optimism.
7/ 12: 2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle. These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle. At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear. The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves. Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.
.....R2 is the Russell 2000, the below are liquid ETFs
IWM = R2 Long, x1, UWM = R2 Long, 2x, TNA = R2 Long, 3x PROFITS FROM RISING SMALL CAPS.
RWM = R2 Short, x1, TWM = R2 Short, 2x, TZA = R2 Short, 3x PROFITS FROM DECLINING SMALL CAPS.
10/ 20: The expected declines did happen. The exit was 10/ 14 (last RWM, TWM trades to be reposted), with TNA used for the rebound. 10/16 was the last posted trade on this site. Sustained profits are possible even in declining and/or turbulent markets. The TAO 8 has been helpful in the investor toolkit. Economic dislocations are forecast to become both more frequent and severe, soon. Time and events will tell...
8/ 5: Given the current economic environment, and the high probability of severe dislocations soon, 3 time frames of R2 models will now be used. Equal weight is given to both the Leverages and the Time Frames.
The TAO 8 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit through using the Inverse ETFs. Maintaining a simple, disciplined, timing strategy, over time, favors positive results.
HOME of the TAO 8: 10/ 23 0800cdt
Equity ETFs, Gold, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
10/ 23: A revised Equity portfolio, including Gold will begin soon
Equities: Another top near. Longer term, The Bear begins, with 20+% declines through 2015
Gold (in USD): Will have major swings, as global currencies destabilize
US Bonds: Short term, choppy, rallies on equity declines. Last phase of the Bull market
TAO 8 & Astro weather: The Blood Moon exacted a toll on equities, and added to Ebola and global conflicts and economic destabilization. TAO 8 (consumer sentiment, economic trends) is now rapidly declining through end 2014 and beyond--the glass becoming "half empty" phase.
Charts: 10/ 12 IWM, Weekly, posted 9/ 28 1200: IWM Weekly
Daily Commentary below results
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current portfolio (cdt): 10/ 23 0800cdt: 10/16: Daily positions are no longer posted
Russell 2000 ETFs
ETF Position Model Wt Date Time Buy Price Stop Exit
x3 Flat 169min 1/3 10/15 1310: TNA 54.43 55.25 10/16 1030 59.96 +10.1
x2 Flat Daily 1/3 7/9 1500: TWM
x1 Flat Weekly 1/3 7/14 1500: RWM
Not in the portfolio, but tracked, are US Bonds Price Stop Exit
Bonds Flat Daily 10/15 1230 TBT 48.28 48.50 10/16 1030 50.68 +5.0
The TAO 8: An astro economic indicator, distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 8 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 8 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below Site revision in progress