Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
8/28 1200: For SPX, there is upside to 2044, bounded by 1940 downside risk. 2044 (minimum) reached later next week. Both VIX and US Bonds will regress back to supportive ma's. Those 3 market moves will set up the next equity leg lower. Weekly SPX chart 8/29. Gold is a local currency event.
0740: The weekly US equity indexes are all now short. Bear market. The monthly are rolling and mainly short. My weekly models use Tues/Fri data. Therefore, I will give 1400 updates on Tues/Fri, including today, with periodic charts. As above, this is an unprecedented time. And this will be a unique and pervasive global contraction. Today, the equity rally corrects into 8/31-9/1, then likely resumes, into 9/4 Jobs and the 9/7 Labor day.
8/27 0740: The first phase of a recovery rally is happening. Caution is the main word here, for me.
8/26 0730: 8/24-25 can begin a complex equity bottom. US Bonds probably exhausted 8/24. It'll need more time.
8/25 0730: More MD appts. After the declines of the past week, equities are making a partial recovery. Too soon to tell how high or long.
8/21 0700: Overnight, further declines. And a decisively negative week.
8/20 0700: Until proven differently, the global equity decline into mid 2016 has begun.
8/19 1230: This am decline was news related. Therefore, usually, transitory. Astro forecasts a collapse into mid-2016. For now, more HFT.
0600: Away most of the am. 8/18 had minimal but protracted weakness, SPXS bought on the close. Overnight, favorable. Chart later today.
8/18 0530: Overnight, more Asian difficulties. I will be away most of the day, so hopefully nothing else major happens.
8/17 0740: Ideally, this week starts a more protracted decline.
8/15 1300: ETFs, as outlined from 2006, make possible gains during disasters. For everyone. Into Jul/Aug 2016, BUY short US equity ETFs. You can do this. For myself, 30yrs experience helps. I've been through similar. The global economic dam has been leaking for several years, exacerbated by the CBs. It's simple now. Buy short. Assets means Assets. All hard assets are deflating. Deflation is dominate, contrary to CBs Max inflationary policies. Contrast, Inflation Is out of control in weak currency countries. US strongest, GB/GE/Nor next.
8/14 0740: Bull has turned to Bear in China and EMs. Corrections, to varying %s, are occurring in other global equity markets. For the US, the SPX/NY/NSX/DJI/R2 are lower by 2/3/4/4/7%, respectively, from their highs. The most likely scenario from today is an irregular equity rally into end Aug.. The caveat: a sharp decline is imminent. There is no historic parallel to current economic times. Globally low or negative interest rates, record debt, slowing growth, and deflationary pressures. The global economy is contracting under these weights. The final demise has begun. Between now and end Aug there may not be any significant rally. My work indicates a rally is most likely, not certain. New chart soon.
8/13 1225: Close enough, with risk increasing. Exit. Some chop likely, yet still inching higher, for maybe a week or two. Then, Lower.
0740: Irregularly higher equities over the next few days, with both VIX and Bonds lower. May be an SPXL exit today.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SPXL,UDOW,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SPXS,SDOW,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
8/29: Weekly/Monthly: Global Equity BEAR. US/GE Bonds: ok. Gold is local currency dependent. Currencies are at the fickle whim of local CBs. Oil, as it is used, is a Global Poison. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing
strategy, over time, favors positive results.
TAO 9 8/28 0740cdt, 1200 Friday update
Transit Aspect Oscillator: an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global economics.
Refer to Equity Charts: 8/11 and 8/19 SP Chart Collapse prediction.
Tues/Fri Commentary below current Position and Chart. 30yrs astro/trading experience.
Charts: 8/29 1400: Chart: Weekly SPX, more or less complete
8/12: The astro/economic overview: Severe Bear market in progress. US equities/assets (global) have peaked. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/GE Bonds stable.
Underlying, there is a confidence (TAO 9), debt and leverage cascade, over the cliff.
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
ETF Position: 8/28 1200cdt: Using both Technicals and Astro.
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price %
Flat SPXS 8/18 1500 17.66 8/19 1230 18.12 +2.6
From July 21,2015 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITY ETFs 16.1 4 4 0 100 0 16.1 0 4.0 0
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
8/28/15 1500 Close Weekly SPX
The parameters that I use don't change. Squares (cubes) are at the heart of planetary orbits, physics, the weights of the harmonics used in the TAO aspectarian (deriving, mathematically, the traditional trine benefic, opposition malefic astro evaluations), and life in general. Beside the current chart point. Sep/Oct 2014 started the Bear market sequence, a sustained drop below the lower 2.0 BB, countered by CB intervention to irregularly new highs, to close above the BB. I would prefer to use NYX, but it is not flexibly tradeable. SP will do (yet only one among many).
The current break (sustained below the 2051 level identified in the 8/19 SPX Wkly chart analysis) confirms the Bear (global) market, weekly. Monthly to follow. Understand and benefit. To restate, these are unprecedented times. In my astro/economic assessment, global assets are poised to implode further. Implosion is the chosen verb.
An economic overview: CB's power is The problem (tyranny: too much power executed by too few). 1913: US Fed, corrupt from the beginning. $1 then, about $.03 now, and Yellen wants inflation. Volcker fought it. Fast forward to the Greenspan/Bernacke/Yellen Put. Drahi and Abe, of necessity, followed suit, putting China (and the globe) in a fatal bind. Now Time will resolve the debt/leverage crunch.
The sequence identified: somc: 7/6 "The CB's have finally lost control. The TAO 9 equity collapse has begun".
7/7 "China, a crash has begun." Another sequence: China (EM), Japan, Eurozone, US. Look at the charts of those zones. They are a collapsing cascade of confidence (cyclic astro TAO 9), debt (time eroding), and leverage (forced liquidation).
In the meantime, between now and US Jobs on 8/4, what happens? The immediate attractor is 2040. Then the declining 16/25 ma's will impose pressure. There is a long, long, long way down to even the shown 1650 SPX 2013 level, and then more...