Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
4/29 0730: The SPY daily 25ema and 2.0 BB average are temporarily providing support. Today, early weakness stabilizing later. Patience for awhile.
4/28 0700: Both the FED and BOJ are acknowledging that zero rates (ZIP) are failing. Technically, overnight was helpful; the trend change is lower.
4/27 1330: So far, ok. FED now aside, BOJ is the major overnight risk. Equity weakening is still likely, maybe not today. TZA vs. SPXS considered.
4/26 0700: Waiting for the FED. One scenario: higher into and immediately after the 4/27 1300 decision, then an equity correction.
4/25 0700: The immediate SPX target is the 2000-2010 range, with 1981 below that, with a lower week, and support from higher US&GE bonds/notes. All time frames are ready to roll south. Gold is likely to sell as well, with support from a higher USD this week. VIX, consequently, higher.
4/20 0700: The clearest current 5-day sell island is by Nas Comp., and remains viable unless a 4960 close happens. Meanwhile, patience.
4/19 1030: Internals are deteriorating; likely downhill rather rapidly from here...enjoy...
0700: The Jupiter aspect was strongest overnight 4/17-18, and faded. Today, another opportunity in this series of trades. Equity highs near the open, weakening throughout the day, and into next week, ideally. All shorter ma's, the BB's, and most short to intermediate MACD's are poised to break lower, and set up a continuation pattern lower. Longer US and GE Bonds/Notes have support. Gold also hints at weakness.
4/18 0730: The reliable Jupiter aspect is active, equities lower; Duh-ha was just that, bitter enemies did not agree. Equities turning south, for awhile.
4/15 0700: An error. The IWM island identified 4/5 wasn't. 4/5 violated one island rule (didn't actually gap higher). However, as luck would have it, all 4 major US indexes have now formed the beginning of another sell island, starting 4/13. Astro has a highly (80+%) probable 4/18 equity lower day, involving a negative Jupiter aspect. Today is likely to irregularly drift lower, with a weak close, beginning an equity trend lower, for several weeks.
4/14 0700: The probabilities are marginal, yet the bias remains short equities, into next week. TVIX is likely premature, but still holding.
4/13 1200: IWM has rallied to the top of its sell island, still intact, creating lower risk for the SPXS and TVIX positions.
0700: The early SP decline was reversed by oil, creating charting instability, and the exit of SPXS. Looking for a re-entry. Watching VIX.
4/12 0700: Returned safely except for one checked bag which remains somewhere in Germany... This am no change. The probability of a significant decline is improving as momentum continues to erode, and the BB breadth narrows. Futures strength today is fading. TAO 10 shows this rally ending.
4/11 0100: Traveling to the US today. No change expected. Equity bias is for further weakening. Enjoy...
4/07 0400: 4/6 necessitated a failed SPXS supoort exit, but the negative momentum trend remained intact. So far, an early SPXS re-entry likely.
4/06 0500: The data now show that a negative momentum trend has started. 1-2 days of counter-trend rallies will occur--today probably being one of those. Moving the SPXS stop gradually higher. SPXS likely to have support in the 15.40's.
4/05 0400: In Germany through 4/11, and equities are proceeding lower from the well-formed IWM sell island top. SPX 2020 1st, then 1996.
4/01 0600: So far, SPXS improving, and 3/29 scenario intact. This am's NFP can dent, but not fully eradicate, the coming equity decline.
3/30 0700: 3/29 SPXS remained weak, then dropped further post-Yellen. This am, so far, a continuance. SPXS now a likely buy early.
3/29 0600: 3/28 was weak. Momentum now negative into daily time frame. 3/21-22 exhausted equity prices; 3/28 established the evolving lower equity trend. TLT set to rally. VIX bought in the last 10min of 3/28. SPXS entry possible. SPX 2020, then 1970. Internet now reliable.
3/28 0700: Back from Marrakech, into Germany for 2 more weeks. Still looking for a sustained equity decline. A 1-2% rally into at least 4/1 likely, followed by further weakness in both the internals and longer MACDs. Internet marginal.
3/17 0700: From 3/18 through 4/11, I will be overseas, and for the week of 3/21-25, out of contact. Starting today or 3/18 I will leave SDS on the board, with no formal stop. The SPX targets are 2000, 1930 and 1820. The daily and monthly charts above remain valid.
3/11 0730: Today: probabilities for a higher open, fading by the equity close. SPXS early buy likely (Bond bottom), for a 1-2wk+ swing lower.
The revised, slightly reweighted TAO 10 indicated an early 2016 equity/asset low, along with the current counter-trend rallies (stocks, commodities). I am working primarily on the TAO's 110 year reliability, and includes some dwarf planets.
3/10 0740: ECB actions are generating what is likely to be the rally finale. This pm we'll know more...
3/4 0740: This am's NFP will likely end the Bear market rally, with a lower close. Almost ideal to short global equities today, as well as to sell gold and oil, and to buy US notes & bonds, and VIX. The equity rally has reached extremes = regression (lower) to the mean.
3/1 1250: A buy of SPXS at 1776 is ideally a declaration of independence from loss... US equities are very near or at near term highs, technically. And markets are going into the 3/4 NFP, as well as the 3/8 solar eclipse. So the likely turn is equities lower for a week+.
2/26 0700: A likely buy of SPXS near or at the open. SPX upper targets reached. Last day of the murder trial, hopefully...
2/25 0800: No change technically. Remains mixed across time frames. Today, may be the last trial day, maybe not...
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
ETF Position: 4/29 1037cdt: Technicals and Astro. The ending of a rally within a global Bear market.
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price %
Flat SPXS 4/27 1430 14.47 4/29 1037 15.40 + 6.4
Flat TVIX 4/28 1210 3.19 4/28 1426 3.58 + 12.2
From July 21,2015 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave%+ Ave%-
EQUITY ETFs 119.3 53 36 17 68 32 155.3 -37.0 4.3 -2.2
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPY Weekly 04/27/16 1430:
This chart features risk/reward. The risk is a 2+% rise to 213-5, the previous highs and upper 2.0 BB. The reward is a 3-5% fall to 199-203, moving average congestion, and the inner 1.0 BB average. Below that are the lower inner 1.0 BB (190) and lower outer 2.0 BB (185). The most probable is both, in 2 legs lower, over at least 1 mth.
Unlike most US Presidential cycles (equities higher into the election), 2016 is most likely to have global equity weakness into early 2017, reflected in the TAO 10 planetary Transit Aspect Oscillator. Its values remain below zero into 2017. The Central Banks unprecedented policies are treading upon globally warming Arctic ice. Polar Plunge anyone?...
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.
The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right. The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale. As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop. The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011. The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction. From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline. The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance. Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.
This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant. However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is. Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates), and 1987-1993 (US equity, Jap equity/housing/asset crashes). Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession). Rose into 2007 and stalled (showing the futility of Bernacke discounts).
The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011. 2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.
TAO 9 4/29cdt 1400 Weekend Flat. 1010 Exiting SPXS limit 15.40. 0730 note
TAO 10 continues a work in progress.
4/5/16: US Negative Q1 likely. The TAO forecast global equity/asset plummet enters a more serious phase. Transit Aspect Oscillator: an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress. Global assets peaked 2014-15. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/GE Bonds stable.
4/29/16: CB's efforts are now failing. US Presidential cycle is weak. "Sell in May..." likely to be beneficial in 2016.
Charts: 4/27 1500. SPY Daily & Weekly. Trend change lower. 2006-2015 TAO 9 below charts.
SPY Daily 04/27/16 1500 Close. Trend change lower imminent.
With a close inside the upper inner 1.0 BB, an 11 day island is forming for SPY. If/when 207 is penetrated, it will be activated, with 207, then 203 the lower BB targets. A trend change will be in effect if/when 203 is broken. The probabilities are high (>80%) for both. This scenario complements the SPY Wkly to the right.
Below the price chart are the 2 primary exp. MACDs. Exp. MACDs are more reliable than ama MACDs. Both the 9/25/16 and 25/64/16 have been extended at high levels for 6 wks. Both can and usually break sharply lower from here, into the -5 range at least, over weeks. Hence, the technical and TAO 10 forecast is for a 5+% equity decline.