Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 8 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 8 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO 8 and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 25+ year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 8 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 8 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic statistically
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 8's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 8, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 8 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 8 now available: 3/ 23/ 14
1) TAO 8 1980-2014 and 1997-2014 graphs with a 2 page explanation
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
2) Subcription: 3/23 Not available ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 8 graphs and explanation
b) Revisions emailed if/when they occur
c) Real-time trading positions and alerts, emailed
d) Weekly commentary and positions on SP 500
ETF RESULTS: %+/-- # #+ #-- %+ %-- Ave+ Ave--
Russell 2000 ETFs: 21.3% 7 7 0 100 0 3.0% 0.0% From Jul 2014
Bond ETFs: 10.4% 2 2 0 100 0 5.2% 0.0% From Jan 2014
Gold ETFs: 3.0% 1 1 0 100 0 3.0% 0.0% From Jun 2014
Volatility ETFs: 11.0% 1 1 0 100 0 11.0% 0.0% From Aug 2014
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SOMC is an Affiliate with: http://www.markettiming.nl/en/market-timing-digest.com
Market Timing Digest features many of the most widely recognized astro, cyclical, and technical market timers in the world.
I submit my monthly comments to MTD as a service. It is a privilege to participate.
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
...9/ 19 0800: Today, it is necessary for a lower equity close for R2. Otherwise, there is a model failure, and a time-out.
9/ 18 0700: After the FED, a sharp trio of moves, ending adversely. After a higher equity open, lower later is projected, with TLT, GLD and UVXY higher.
9/ 17 1000: UVXY went into the buy zone, stabilized for 2hrs, and is a buy into the FED. 6% stop, although unprotected it's an 80% probable trade.
9/ 17 0800: The FED today, Scotland tomorrow along with assorted econ data. R2 within parameters; Bonds and Gold ideally basing, for awhile.
9/ 16 0800: FED or not, equities have finished the first phase of weakening = momentum erosion, and VIX rising. Bonds are preliminary Buy.
9/ 14 2000: The forecast equity decline has begun with 80+% reliability now. 1st wave lower Sep-Oct for R2 8+%; a crash now a possibility, meaning a sequence of economic dislocations/defaults threatening market(s) liquidity--central banks being overwhelmed with few (no) viable tools left. The global lows in interest rates have now probably been seen. The bond bear market will have reprieves from falling equities, but won't last. Commodities to continue bearish (in strong currency countries (US/GER/UK) from weakening demand. The US FED now looms large for 3 days.
9/ 11 0600: After 2 trading days, there is irregular progress. The negative equity turn has likely begun.
9/ 5 0530: R2 futures momentum improved 9/4 and overnight. This current turn is now 60+% likely to be the start of a major equity trend lower.
9/ 3 0600: Out of traveling necessity will remain in TZA today. Stop lowered accordingly, risking a relatively large loss. Not usual.
9/ 2 1700: Internet access limited all day--a long vacation trip. In retrospect, a marginal day. Equities must close lower tomorrow.
8/ 26 1000: uvxy, the x2 vix etf, gave a preliminary 10m buy at 23.54.
7/ 29 0800: TAO 8 now rapidly declining into end 2014. It is still at a very positive level, however, favoring periodic renewed bursts of optimism (rallies).
7/ 12: 2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle. These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle. At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear. The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves. Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.
.....R2 is the Russell 2000, the below are liquid ETFs
IWM = R2 Long, x1, UWM = R2 Long, 2x, TNA = R2 Long, 3x PROFITS FROM RISING SMALL CAPS.
RWM = R2 Short, x1, TWM = R2 Short, 2x, TZA = R2 Short, 3x PROFITS FROM DECLINING SMALL CAPS.
8/ 5: Given the current economic environment, and the high probability of severe dislocations soon, 3 time frames of R2 models will now be used. The TAO 8 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to 29-32-35 (US,Europe), 87-90 (US, Japan), 00-03 (US, Global), 07-10 (US,Global), and 14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread. Benefit through using the Inverse ETFs. Maintaining a simple, disciplined, timing strategy, over time, favors positive results.
HOME of the TAO 8: 9/ 21 1300cdt
TAO/astro weather: TAO 8 remains at high optimism levels (elevated consumer sentiment), but is now rapidly declining through end 2014--now, the glass becoming "half empty" phase. 9/19: Mars/Jupiter trine (negative correlation) and Mars/Saturn 45, both adverse for another 2 weeks. 9/10 "Extreme" solar event: storm arrived 9/11-15. The storm added 2 "wars": Ebola and ISIS, among others.
(The trading updates are usually posted within 3 hrs of a new position).
9/ 21 1300: IWM Daily chart posted
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:100,000 significance
a) TAO 8 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 8 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below Site revision in progress
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 12/31/2013 PPRC is p < .000001, >1:1,000,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3538, r=+0.66, p < .000001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:100,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and uniquely astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology rises and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:100,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology decline, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current positions (cdt): 9/ 19 0800cdt:
...All positions are buys, either of a long or inverse ETF. Results: from 7/1/14.
Date Time ETF Price Stop Model Wt. %+/- % +/-
8/ 25 1130: TZA 14.41 13.93 169m 1/3 0.0 +21.3
7/ 9 1500: TWM 44.24 42.64 Dy 1/3
7/ 14 1500: RWM 16.38 15.81 Wk 1/3
Not in the portfolio but tracked are US Bonds, Gold and periodically, the VIX, via SVXY and UVXY
Bonds Buy Stop Model Gold Buy Stop Model Volatility Buy Stop Model
9/ 16 1500: TLT 113.55 112.12 Dy 9/ 16 1000: GLD 118.57 116.56 169m 9/ 17 1000: UVXY 23.82 21.49 169m