Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
ETFs %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 119.4% 46 34 12 74 26 192.7 -20.3 5.6% -1.7%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
5/ 27 0700: $NYA chart posted, UVXY now flat, and TMF an exit. Equities are weak, but at short term support. Waiting, a day or two.
5/ 26 0700: Over weekend, increasing instability, favoring US Bonds, Volatility, and SPXS. Russell 2000 is weakest and confirming lower values. With a moderate lower close (0.5%), the other major indexes will confirm what is likely to be a larger plunge than expected. VIX to the upside.
5/ 22 0845: Within the buy zone for uvxy. Risk 3-5%. Likely for equities to weaken into the close and for a lower 5/26 week. Enjoy the holiday.
0700: Equities are still most likely to break lower, with volatility rising. A UVXY re-buy likely today. Bond have positive momentum.
5/ 21 0700: Status quo. For SPX, the upper 2.2 Bollinger Band has been resistance. SPX remains likely to break lower. Bonds remain positive.
5/ 20 0700: Today, the $SPX zone of 2133-35 is overhead, and needs to hold. UVXY needs a rally. And Bonds are favorable for both. We'll see.
5/ 19 0700: The SPXS position remains marginal, but still viable. Usually, today into Friday, pre-holiday, is bullish. But the upper 2.2 BB for SPX is 2132.59, and still likely to hold. Today, a slightly higher open leading to a lower close. Also, bonds, gold, vix are possible reversals.
5/ 18 0930: Signifcantly lower low early, sufficient to mandate an exit. VIX remains ready to rally, anytime.
0830: Greece is currently affecting global bond stability. There will be another time.
0700: Equities: momentum and internals weakening, with a breakdown likely (SPX chart today). Volatility primed to increase.
5/ 15 0700: A confluence of signals in equities, bonds, gold and vix indicate an increase in dynamic market activity. Bonds bought and gold sold 5/14 on the close. Today, both an SPXS and UVXY buys are likely at or near the open (short equities, long volatility). Momentum is favorable for all.
5/ 14 0700: Another higher US equity open. The stop will remain the same. As an SPXS ally, Volatility is also set up for a rally. CBs hints at continued or further easing have sustained this weak equity rally. However, US Bonds failed early 5/13, and the contra-trend TMF was sold.
5/ 13 0740: Retail weak. Import/Export deflation. Likely today into week end, irregular equity weakening and US Bond strengthening.
5/ 12 0700: 5/1 somc: "Until there is a repudiation of negative interest rates...". In weekly retrospect, 2/3/15 started the decline, then from 3/9 to 4/7 there was a contra-trend rally, 4/10 started the current US Bond rout. This is negative for equities. More to be described in the chart to be posted. Meanwhile, SPXS is improving. Futures lower, and bounced off support overnight. By 5/15, SPX is likely to test 2073, the lower daily 2.2 BB.
5/ 11 0700: SPXS is surviving a PBOC rate cut (Europe lower). Today, likely low range, with downside for 5/12. US Bonds poised for a buy.
5/ 8 1230: The risk is now reduced, and unlikely to be a higher gap open on Monday. The upper daily Bollinger Bands are limiting adversity.
0740: The Wed duo of ADP and Yellen led to this 2 day rally, with NFP ok. The open will be near SPX overhead; an SPXS buy is possible.
5/ 7 0800: The daily equity trend has probably reversed lower. Ideally, equities rally on the 5/8 NFP, offering a short. Bonds are due for a rally.
5/ 6 1430: There is SPX support at 2061, so the risk has increased. Probable choppy 5/7 and unknown right now into the 5/8 NFP report.
0834: The SPXS opened into the buy zone, enough to reduce risk to 2-3%. OK for now. NFP Friday still poses a risk.
0730: ADP weak. However, the CBs still have more QE in their arsenal. Equities, a sell is in effect; looking for a lower risk entry.
5/ 5 0700: 5/4 neared the old highs. The 5/6 ADP is major. An SPY sell set-up (and other indexes) is now in place. Expecting choppy today.
5/ 4 0700: Small caps will likely pull large even higher, for 1-2 days, into ADP and Greece events. Then an SPXS buy is favored.
5/ 1 0700: The decline 4/30 continued to the 2nd support level for SPX. Overhead resistance, the attractor, is 2102-2106, with a rebound into Monday, accompanied with further declines in US Bonds and Gold prices. Until there is a repudiation of negative interest rates, CBs still control.
3/18 1340: Central Banks remain in control. All CB's are easing or now, US, slow to raise rates.
The Equity ETFs: primarily
SPXL = SP500 Long, x3, PROFITS FROM RISING Prices.
SPXS = SP500 Short, x3, PROFITS FROM DECLINING Prices.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit from Equity and US Bond moves through long and inverse ETFs. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
HOME of the TAO 9: 5/ 27 0700cdt, 0840 Exiting SPXS, 0700 Exiting TMF on the open
Equity ETFs, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Equities: Flat (5/27). Transports, Utilities have entered their decline. Others to follow.
US Bonds: Flat (5/27). The 2015 Bear began 2/3/15. Rallies with equity weakness.
US Gold: Flat (5/15). Will be volatile, as currencies destabilize. By fall 2015, bull.
Volatility: Flat (5/26). Periodic trades, both long and short
The TAO 9 astro index identifies now increasing pessimism.This has coincided with equity declines.
The graphs highlight the correlations. 80-82, 87-90, 01-03, 07-09: TAO 9 indicates similarities.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, now available.
Charts: 5/26 SPX Chart posted. 5/12 US Bond weekly posted.
Daily Commentary below trades/results
5/12 Equities are the main focus for SOMC. The overview: equities are entering a Bear market.
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current status: 5/ 27 0840cdt: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
ETF Current Buy Date Price Stop Sell Date Price
Equities Flat SPXS 5/ 15 0830 17.67 5/27/15 0840 17.97 + 1.7%
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below