Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
ETFs %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 101.5% 35 26 9 74 26 172.1 -16.6 6.6% -1.8%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
COMMENTARY... (12/ 8: Older trading notes have been moved to Trading Notes History)
3/ 5 0700: Staus quo. The 144min $spx trend is reversing lower, with overhead between 2105-8. VIX exited on the close.
3/ 4 0700: Bonds bought on the close (or 1430) 3/3. This supports being short equities, and indirectly long gold. Overnight, favorable. SP 500 is set up for a large sustained decline. VIX after a break-even trade last week, again bought 3/3, UVXY at 17.25. The stage is fully set.
3/ 3 0400: On vacation with family for a week. Timely updates may not be possible. Outlook remains the same.
3/ 2 0700: Overnight, equities pushed higher, and later lower a few ticks. Increased volatility directly ahead; somc positions improving momentum.
2/27 0700: Status quo, with a quiet day 2/26, with bonds retracing. Short term momentum remains favorable, with vix barely holding its buy.
2/26 0700: A confirming day 2/25, especially when VIX gave a buy later in the day (at 1330 and again at 1400). Overnight favorable. The current positions ideally will hold for several days or longer, evolving from momentum into trend reversals.
2/25 0700: By the close 2/24, both equities and gold had met parameters. Short term momentum is favorable. USD likely to weaken. We'll see.
2/24 0930: Ideally, this bond buy precedes the equity decline by about 2 days. The bond buy began 2/20 and confirmed this am (higher highs).
0700: By end Friday, a chart describing the likely breakdown of equities. Meanwhile, VIX settles lower. As in, the calm before the storm.
2/23 0700: Friday required an exit. The Central Banks dominate. The equity bull remains until faith in the CBs fails. That is expected, via a black swan event(s) within 2 months. The TAO 9 forecasts that. So far, only a few troubled areas. Also the TAO 9 may be wrong, not likely, but maybe.
2/20 0700: Progress, on 3 trade fronts. Momentum is favorable and improving, intraday and daily. And the wheels are being Greece-d.
2/19 0700: Central Banks are still in control, marginally. Overnight, favorable for all positions. Waiting.
2/18 1530: Gold bought on the close. An exhaustion island, within the intraday momentum buy zone, for the first time since mid Jan.
0700: Bonds were stopped out, then bought on the close. Equities are primed to sell, bonds to buy. Patience and discipline.
2/17 0700: For SPXS and TMF, premature buys have now evolved into current high probability signals; so they are held today.
2/13 0700: The SPXS trade obviously premature. Today still has possibilities. TMF has improving probabilities, and that helps. We'll see...
2/12 0700: Equities higher early, and need to finish weak for a hold of SPXS. It's an upper outer BB limit day. Reverse applies to TMF.
2/11 0700: The credibility of the 15+ major Central Banks is being questioned. Forced reactions come first, and when their ineffectiveness becomes apparent, the equity collapse will begin . Positions ok this am. Both Gold and VIX may be worth a venture on the long side.
2/10 1130: TLT/TMF entered the lower risk buy zone. And ideally SPY is making a lower high after the 2/6 sell-off. VIX likely to reverse higher.
0700: The TAO 9 is most suited for broader shifts in sentiment/economic cycles--the larger, longer term (months/years) trends. Predicting dates and prices using astro elude me. Technical charting is more useful. 2/9 had bonds not bottoming; ergo, stocks would rally into 2/10. They are. The SPXS position and stops remain the same. Bonds need to bottom for equities to decline at this time (not always). Waiting for a TMF (TLT) buy signal.
2/9 0700: The equity charts are bearish. And, short term, US bond and GLD charts bullish. And with a Grexit and China slowdown, is this IT? Maybe.
The TAO 9 forecast of sharply lower equities has yet to manifest. This may very well be The beginning of the slide. Staying short.
2/6 1100: Risk is now less. SPY can sell rapidly from this level. VIX favorable. Bonds may be beginning the long series of lower highs/lows (rates rise).
0740: NFP strong. Opening adverse. Moving toward unchanged is needed to hold. An exit at a loss most likely.
2/5 1100: The buy zone for both, using both inner and outer BBs, and momentum, short term 125min parameters. Hints at a weak NFP 2/6.
0600: Mixed equity readings from technicals and Central Bank moves. Bias for the next trade is short, maybe later today or 2/6. Dentist this am.
2/4 0730: ADP was neutral. For 2015, equity trends (except for very short term) have been non-existent. For now, the safety of the sidelines.
2/3 1300: For equities, nearing/at overhead, and bonds caught a serious cold and gapped. Likely for both, chop dead ahead. We'll safely wait, into ADP, Challenger and BLS Jobs numbers. Given the equity, bond, currency, oil, and gold moves for 2+weeks, the global destabilization continues.
0700: Short term momentum is with both equity and bond positions. And overnight has been favorable. The ma's are congesting.
SPXL = SP500 Long, x3, TMF = 20+yr Long, 3x, PROFITS FROM RISING Prices.
SPXS = SP500 Short, x3, TMV = 20+yr Short, 3x, PROFITS FROM DECLINING Prices.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit from Equity and US Bond moves through long and inverse ETFs. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
HOME of the TAO 9: 3/ 5 0700cst, 1100 Buying UVXY, 1400 Exiting UVXY
Equity ETFs, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Equities: Short Longer term, The Bear begins, with 20+% declines 2015.
US Bonds: Long Short term, rallies on sharp equity declines. By late 2015, bear.
US Gold: Long Will be volatile, as global currencies destabilize. By mid 2015, bull.
The TAO 9 is graphically indicating both a sharp drop in equities and elevated bonds for 2015.
See for yourself the correlations. 80-82, 87-90, 01-03, 07-09 replays? Astronomically, yes.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, now available.
Charts: 2/ 28 1500 New Charts RSP 125 min, and TLT 125min, both featuring reversals
Daily Commentary below trades/results
2/23/15: A major research, publishing commitment is requiring a major part of my time for 2+mths.
Equities will be the main focus here. A black swan is both forecast and expected.
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current status: 3/ 5 1400cst: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
ETF Current Buy Date Price Stop Sell Date Price
Equities Short SPXS 2/24 1500 18.44 18.64
Bonds Long TMF 3/03 1500 86.44 85.36
Gold Long UGLD 2/24 1500 11.53 11.36
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below