Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 8 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 8 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO 8 and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 25+ year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 8 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 8 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic statistically
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 8's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 8, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 8 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 8 now available: 3/ 23/ 14
1) TAO 8 1980-2014 and 1997-2014 graphs with a 2 page explanation
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
2) Subcription: 3/23 Not available ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 8 graphs and explanation
b) Revisions emailed if/when they occur
c) Real-time trading positions and alerts, emailed
d) Weekly commentary and positions on SP 500
ETF RESULTS: %+/-- # #+ #-- %+ %-- Ave+ Ave--
Russell 2000 ETFs: 21.3% 7 7 0 100 0 3.0% 0.0% From Jul 2014
Bond ETFs: 9.8% 1 1 0 100 0 9.8% 0.0% From Jan 2014
Gold ETFs: 3.0% 1 1 0 100 0 3.0% 0.0% From Jun 2014
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Market Timing Digest features many of the most widely recognized astro, cyclical, and technical market timers in the world.
I submit my monthly comments to MTD as a service. It is a privilege to participate.
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
...8/ 29 0600: After a higher R2 open, traders will head out en masse. Calm day...before the Sep storms begin.
8/ 28 0800: R2 futures momentum worsening overnight; TLT supportive; VIX increasing; astro remains negative. All positive for current positions.
8/27 0800: TZA stop lowered to the current lower BB. Overnight favorable. Intraday SP highs now likely to have been history either 8/26 or today.
8/ 26 1000: uvxy, the x2 vix etf, gave a preliminary 10m buy at 23.54. It is beginning to base at a low risk level. If not this time, the next...
8/25 0800: Higher open, ideally failing. Futures may have maxed overnight.
8/ 22 0800: TZA. Now the 8/19 close needs to hold. Momentum overnight improving. Ideally, TZA irregularly higher, and SP500 stalls, Bonds favored.
8/ 21 0600: The TZA local low, 14.62, needs to hold. Choppy for awhile.
8/20 0800: Overnight, ok for TZA. Lower 2.2BB is 14.52. Dy/Wk IWM trend still lower. Crossroads at current level.
8/ 19 1130: Two intraday higher lows. Confidence 60%. Initial target 15.53, to close the 8/18 opening gap. Congestion at the 50dama and upper BB.
0800: IWM has rallied to the 50dama and near the upper BB = resistance that is likely to hold...at least for awhile.
8/ 18 0900: 15.25 was the goal. Enough for a trade that failed. Now patience.
0800: As with the posted IWM chart analysis, 8/18-19 are problematic. Congestion. TZA likely to fail 8/18-19 = an exit, then bought again.
8/ 15 0830: The TZA open qualifies as an exhaustion gap. Probability: about 75%. We'll see.
0600: IWM. After a higher open, 113.85 support (64dema), 115.25 resistance (50dama). Before 8/19, an equity turn lower likely. For IWM, the open may prove to be an exhaustion gap. The AD bullish divergence has lessened; and astro again favoring resuming the bearish Dy/Wk trends.
8/ 14 0800: Stop moved higher. TNA probabilities now 50/50. Trend still up, but weakening. IWM Dy/Wk trend down.
8/ 13 0800: The 8/8-8/11 TNA gap was filled yesterday; 196 trend still up. 8/12 low likely to hold. Irregularly inching higher, for now.
7/ 29 0800: TAO 8 now rapidly declining into end 2014. It is still at a very positive level, however, favoring periodic renewed bursts of optimism (rallies).
7/ 12: 2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle. These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle. At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear. The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves. Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.
.....R2 is the Russell 2000, the below are liquid ETFs
IWM = R2 Long, x1, UWM = R2 Long, 2x, TNA = R2 Long, 3x PROFITS FROM RISING SMALL CAPS.
RWM = R2 Short, x1, TWM = R2 Short, 2x, TZA = R2 Short, 3x PROFITS FROM DECLINING SMALL CAPS.
8/ 5: Given the current economic environment, and the high probability of severe dislocations soon, 3 time frames of R2 models will now be used. The TAO 8 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to 29-32-35 (US,Europe), 87-90 (US, Japan), 00-03 (US, Global), 07-10 (US,Global), and 14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread. Benefit through using the Inverse ETFs. Maintaining a simple, disciplined, timing strategy, over time, favors positive results.
HOME of the TAO 8: 8/ 29 0600cdt
TAO/astro weather: TAO 8 remains at high optimism levels (elevated consumer sentiment), but is now rapidly declining through end 2014. Mars/Node now negative, increasing conflicts and sharp price changes. From today into next week many significant turning point aspects = the SP/DOW highs either in or nigh.
(The trading updates are usually posted within 3 hrs of a new position).
8/ 17 1900 IWM technical chart posted
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:100,000 significance
a) TAO 8 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 8 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below Site revision in progress
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 12/31/2013 PPRC is p < .000001, >1:1,000,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3538, r=+0.66, p < .000001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:100,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and uniquely astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology rises and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:100,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology decline, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current positions (cdt): 8/ 29 0600cdt:
...All positions are buys, either of a long or inverse ETF. Results: from 7/1/14.
Date Time ETF Price Stop Model Wt. %+/- % +/-
8/ 25 1130: TZA 14.41 13.92 169m 1/3 0.0 +21.3
7/ 9 1500: TWM 44.24 Dy 1/3
7/ 14 1500: RWM 16.38 Wk 1/3
Not in the portfolio but tracked are: (8/ 27: periodically, the VIX, via SVXY and UVXY)
Stop Model Model Stop Model
8/ 21 1500: TLT. 116.64 117.31 Wkly 6/ 10 1500: GLD 121.39 Dy UVXY 8/26 1000: 23.54 23.44 169m
7/ 29 1500: Exit 125.39 +3.0%