Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
7/27 0700: Equities lower, then...
7/24 0700: SP is ready to break down, with negative momentum. Also Venus is retrograde 7/25, negative to ME, MA, JU. Likely trend change.
7/23 0700: If there is a signal today, it will be SPXS, just possible, for a hold into next week and equity reversals to the short side.
7/22 0900: Probable major trend reversals.
0700: Apparently, the 6/29 $VIX/VIX ETF note still applies. The $VIX model works well. The ETFs favor the options insiders. Buyer beware.
7/21 0700: Sufficient for today to be earning on the open. The positions have potential to hold into next week. No targets yet.
7/20 0700: Overnight, little of significance. After moving higher early, equities are most likely to weaken into a lower close.
7/17 0800: $VIX will open near record lows. Equity futures are weakening, and bonds higher. Favorable.
0700: NQ futures again new highs, however at upper 2.2 BB level. Likely topping intraday. SPXS & TLT hold. VIX, a possible buy.
7/16 0700: NQ futures making new highs, R2 stalled at upper 1.1 BB, with SP between. Bonds marginally lower. VIX, even though the leveraged ETFs have not tracked the index reliably, still can provide occasional trades. Today may be one of those opportunities.
7/15 0700: VIX is very close to a low, improving the probability of both US equity and bond reversals (hence SPXS & TLT). As per the new SOMC longer time frame considered when posting positions (ideally holding 1+ weeks), equity declines are likely to extend beyond the recent lows. The above "New Chart Section" may be too much of a logistical hurdle...yet to be determined. Today, equity highs early, to close lower.
7/14 1030: VIX reached a stabilization zone, allowing leverage on the short $SPX position. Also SPY at upper, inner BBand value, resistance.
0700: Some SOMC revisions completed. After a full year of real time trading results, usually leveraged, enough for statistical validity. The ongoing focus will be navigating the 2015-16 turbulent economic/social/political waters. Currently, US equities are short and Bonds long, both being at/near respective resistance and support levels as of the 7/13 close. More as further site revisions progress.
7/13 0700: Almost ideal. The weekly SP is similar to Feb-Jul 2011, stalling within 1% higher than today's open. By 7/16, probably rolling over.
7/10 0700: For US equities, 7/8 "forming an irregular bottom" it has been, gapping higher this am. Destabilizing markets gyrate. VIX needs to unwind for awhile before further substantial declines resume. For SPX, 2080-95 is the overhead range. Longer term, into the fall and beyond, global equities decline, with rallies to be sold. The TAO 9 is indicating that another global recession is dead ahead. Enjoy your weekend.
7/ 9 0700: For most US indexes, a double bottom did form, with a sharp rally overnight. Priority #1 since late June has been avoiding losses.
It is too soon to speculate/assess where overhead might be. Expecting 2 days of higher equities, into midday 7/10.
7/ 8 0700: In the US, equities may be forming an irregular short term bottom. For SOMC today, however, the safety of the sidelines is again likely.
7/ 7 0700: The CBs don't control oil. Add Iran deal, & soon to test the March lows. The PBOC is experiencing free market flows--out. There, a crash has begun. China felt the negative aspect effect shown by the TAO 9. More to come. The effects of China combined with Eurozone vulnerability damages global equities acutely into Sep/Oct. Meanwhile, today hospital, ideally for the last time, then adjusting this site.
7/ 6 0700: The big 4 tops have been wobbling. They all now fall: first China, then Eurozone, and ending with Japan and US. Unraveling ahead.
Add to that an Iran deal, and oil takes down several more countries. "Interesting times" as the old Chinese curse goes. Buying last night's SP futures open is over. The CBs have finally lost control. The forecast TAO 9 equity collapse has begun. How SOMC will change is unknown at present. More hospital 7/6-7, then probably ok. Today, the sidelines look safe. Longer term, position short on 2-3 day equity rallies (like 7/2).
7/ 2 0740: More hospital for my wife today (ok, but takes time). NFP midline. Until the rebound rally runs its course, the Greece vote, CB response, and Bonds exhaust the higher rate trend, shorting (SPXS,TZA,SQQQ et.al.) equities is risky. Ideally, SPX rises to 2095-2100, and stalls.
7/ 1 0500: This site will no longer post positions based on intraday data. Longer daily and weekly assessments only. The SPXL,TQQQ,TNA signals were valid yesterday, at 1200, but intraday. This am they are improving. This am, back to the hospital.
6/30 1200: For the next 12 months, focusing on SP 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. Site update in progress.
0700: 6/29 was a culmination of 2015's trading, progressively internally weaker, until failure. The CBs are losing credibility and control. As with Oct 2014: probably not quite over yet. The VIX move was panic, and a warning of the underlying instability...worse to come into and through 2016. The ETFs EW_, fill in the blank, have already or are now following IYT and XLU bearish lead. Today, the ECB and Greece pretend again... In the US, it's pre-holiday seasonality, with a rebound rally likely into Friday, then fading.
6/29 0700: $VIX, intraday low to high 6/23-6/26, gained 25.0% (11.93 to 14.91). Therefore, as forecast, UVXY (and TVIX), as their x2 ETF is structured, should have gained nearly 50%. UVXY was up only 10.4%, TVIX 10.0%. VXX (x1) gained 5.3%. Similarly misbehaving were the inverses: both XIV (-x1) and SVXY (-x1) were both lower only 5.0%. Until proved differently, these 5 ETFs are unreliable, and SOMC coverage is stopped. This was the main reason why all SOMC positions went flat Friday. $VIX, and derivative ETFs, were major strategic trading parts.
The weekend featured Greece, Puerto Rico, China and SpaceX, hence globally lower Equities and higher (solvent countries) Bonds. The global Central Banks are this week on trial for their credibility lives. From the sidelines, for awhile, I will wait. Upon reentry, VIX will be absent.
5/ 29 0900: The $SPX (and other global indexes) is likely starting the long awaited (and TAO 9 forecast) correction. TLT (to 127), VIX bullish.
0735: Global GDPs weak, expected. Overhead $SPX 2126-30. SPXS re-entry likely, with US Bonds continuing to rally (see chart).
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,DGP,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing
strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, with astro, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
TAO 9 7/27 0700cdt
Transiting Aspect Oscillator Venus now retrograde, equity trend lower
An Astro Scientific Index Real time 23 Transiting pair effects on economy, social stability
7/25: Globally Historic failing imminent. There have been many. This is only Phase one, of Two.
Charts: 7/25 RSP weekly posted
Daily Commentary below trades/results
7/9 Equities are the primary focus. The astro/economic overview: US equities are near their final highs for 2015-16, prior to entering a global and severe Bear market.
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
Trade: 7/27 0700cdt: (technicals and astro)
ETFs only 7/1/14--6/30/15 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 123.8% 50 37 13 74 26 197.4 -20.6 5.3% -1.6%
ETF Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price
Equities SPXS 7/23 1000 17.40 17.81
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
New Chart Section: 07/25/15 RSP Wk 5 yr First Astro bottom 2012 CB intervention. Now collapse into a so so simple.
Transits represent a collection of global welfare. TAO index indicates CB (human) intervention fluff. Enjoy the short ETFs.