Expo  ETF  Trading                                                          Richard  Schulz

    

     Exponential Oscillators:   18 ETFs  Expo T      Markets: Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Gold, Oil


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:


1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts


 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

 


mepicture091209.jpg

SOMC Purposes:   10/21/16


1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors

2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience



NOTES                                                                                                                  

4 -28 0740: GDP, et.al., as expected.  Today, equity highs early, then (much?) lower close.  Weekly charts still set to move lower.

4 -27 0730: Oil is stressing equities.  Today, uneventful until the aft..

4 -26 0730: Expo T very, very Fast reversals today (~Brexit, and others). The equity cliff nears...

4 -25 0730: Today, equity highs early, then lower, into 4-28.  XIV Expo T Fast likely to reverse.

4 -24 0730: In the midst of a family crisis, signals were missed; and not found until this am.  Mea Culpa.  Moving on, today's equity highs are most likely to be a one-off, with the lower trend resuming 4/25-26.  VIX, after this am's decimation, rises.

4 -21 0750: The weekly charts have NYA, RSP, IWM, VEU all primed to sell.  So is UUP.  FXE and TLT, IEF, LQD remain on buys.  This is weekly.  Forecast, next week resumes these trends.

4 -20 0700: Gave up gains overnight.  Expo models are now mixed.  An early exit, then waiting again.

4 -19 0730: Equities not quite ready to break lower, yet.  Today, highs early, then weakening.

4 -18 0800: Today, equities negative all day.  The trend resumes...

4 -17 0700: A day of waiting.  More later.


02/17 0700: The illusion that DJT policies can ever be funded, much less work, is persistent.  Awaiting the arrival of the tidal waves of health system, budget, tax, immigration and foreign policy dysfunction.


        Expo T  STRATEGIC           and            Technical  Charts

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

T812514300png.jpg

TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.



The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

SPY  Strategic   Expo T  5/16 to Present

SPY  Expo T   Strategic:    Sum%    T#    G#   L#     %G   %L    T G%  T L%   AveG% AveL%

5/16/16 - Present                21.0       16    11     5       68     32     25.3   - 4.3        2.5      - 0.8

NYSE   EXPO T   Exponential  Oscillator  Values:    (2 data/day)   +1000/-1000 Max/Min

   

Mar/Apr       24S 27S 28S 29S 30S 31S  3S  4S  5S   6S  7S 10S 11S 12S 13S 17S 18S 19S 20S 21B 24B 25B 26B 27S 28S

ET    0930    437 416 408  421  446 466  464 457 458 453  449 449 444 440  430 411  406 402 396  403 421 462  507 524

        1430    430 410 416  430  461 470  461 455 454 451  447 451 444 436  418 410  403 395 401  404 438 483  524 531

Fast  0930   - 39  -54  -57  -43  - 19   0     0   - 5   - 4  - 7   -10   -9  -12 - 15 - 22   -35  -37  -38  -39  -30   -14  21    58   70

        1430    - 44  -57  -49  -33   - 6    5   - 1   - 6   - 7  - 9   -11   -8  -12 - 17 - 31   -35  -39  -42  -34  -28     1  39    70   75

Slow 0930    574 562 559  557  564 569  566 563 564 561 559 559 555 553  548 538  534 529 524  524 528 544  562 574

        1430    570 559 558  559  569 570  565 562 562 560 558 559 555 551  541 537  531 525 525  522 534 552  570 579

 

IWM    EXPO T  Values     (2 data/day)       +1000/-1000 Max/Min      Dates with opening Signal

Mar/Apr      24S 27S 28S 29S 30S 31S  3S  4S  5S  6S  7S 10S 11S 12S 13S 17S 18S 19S 20S 21B  24B 25B 26B 27S 28S

ET    0930   377 359 356  370  390 416  432 434 427 411 404 405 406 411  403 387  384 395 409  429  453  490 530 558 

        1430   371 358 362  380  404 429  434 430 417 407 402 407 412 407  393 385  385 399 421  437  469  508 547 567

Fast  0930   -49  -57  -55  -41   -22  - 1   13   14    8   - 4   - 9   -8   -7   - 3   - 8   -18   -19  -11    0    16   32    56   81  96

        1430    -51  -56  -49  -32   -11    9    14   11    1   - 7   -11  -7   -3  - 5   -14   -19   -18  - 7    9    22   42    67   91  98

Slow 0930   467 455 450  451  455 462  467 467 465 459 457 457 457 458  454 448  446 449 453 460  470  487  507 523

        1430   462 453 450  453  459 467  467 466 461 458 456 458 459 456  450 447  445 450 457 463  477  496  516 530

$NYA   04/05/17  1500 Daily.

     The 3/3 chart analysis: "3/1 was probably the IWM high for a long time...".

Same with $NYA. The month since has seen gradual erosion.  Now the chart is primed for the sharper phase.  The 9/25 MACD will go negative, and the longer 16/36 will follow.  The negative WMA trends will accelerate.  The immediate drop is to 11200.  Projection: <9300 =  >20% decline by year end.

4 - 7   NYSE       Expo T (ET),   Expo T Fast (ETF),   Expo T Slow (ETS)       5/16/16 - 4/07/17

      ET, ETF and ETS are unique oscillators.  As of the 4-7 close, ET Fast most recent thrust below Zero was

3-6 to 3-14, similar to 7-25 to 8-4.  The NYSE then rallied, as ETF quickly rose above Zero.  Identically, there were lower ETF  highs on 9-8 and 3-20.  Last week, 4-3 to 4-7, ETF gradually declined, remaining below Zero.  ETS is also sustaining a decline (last time 9-8 to 11-7, ending slightly below Zero).  Both Expo T and ETS will go below Zero again.

      4 - 8  The Forecast:  4 -10+ accelerates the recent equity declines, with both ET and ETS ending well below Zero.

Equity values will likely drop 20+%.  The statistical odds favor using Inverse equity ETFs as investments/hedges.

      Expo T is a composite of Exponential Oscillators and EO Sums.  It is zeroed, with a range of +1200 to -1200.

4 - 28  0600  Expo T:           STRATEGIC       Expo T page            In   TZA  4 - 26, 1030    $16.38



      XIV,  NYSE,  NASX,  DJT,  IWM,  QQQ,  RSP,  SPY,  XLF,  XLV,  VEU,  VGK.      UUP,  FXE.     TLT,  IEF, LQD, HYG.     GLD.     USO.

  2016  
   B /S
 NYSE   + / -
     %
 % SUM
 16 May
 S 1430
 206.60      
      0       0
 24 May
 B 0930
 205.90     0.7
    0.3     0.3
 10 Jun
 S 1430
 210.00     4.1
    2.0
    2.3
 23 Jun
 B 0930
 209.80     0.2
    0.1
    2.4
 24 Jun
 S 0930
 206.00   - 3.8
  - 1.8
    0.6
 28 Jun
 B 0930
 201.20     4.8
    2.3
    2.9
 25 Aug
 S 1430
 217.60   16.4
    8.1
   11.0
 02 Sep
 B 1430
 218.40
  - 0.8
  - 0.4
   10.6
 09 Sep
 S 0930
 216.20
  - 2.2
  - 1.0
    9.6
 27 Sep
 B 1430
 215.60
    0.6
    0.3
    9.9 
 11 Oct
 S 0930
 214.60
  - 1.0
  - 0.5
    9.4
 18 Oct
 B 1430
 213.70     0.9
    0.4
    9.8
 25 Oct
 S 1430
 214.20     0.5
    0.2
  10.0
 07 Nov
 B 0930
 211.90     2.3
    1.0
  11.0
 28 Dec
 S 1430
 224.50   12.6
    5.9
  16.9
 04 Jan
 B 0930
 225.80   - 1.3
  - 0.6
  16.3
 23 Feb
 S 1430 
 236.50   10.7  
    4.7
  21.0
           
           
           
%24AXTAO60617.png

ASTRO  TAO  4 -7      1 - 25 chart update. Transiting  Planetary  Effects as related to the NYSE, and Global Equities and Assets.


     THE ASTRO  TAO (RED)  5-16-16 to 6-6-17, with the NYSE (BLACK) and Astro Sub Indexes.  TAO is an objective Transit Aspect Oscillator, and is ending a 7 month rise.   TAO >Zero & Rising = optimism and asset appreciation.  TAO <Zero & Falling = pessimism and asset devaluation.  From early March, TAO goes below zero = pessimism and negative events dominate = equities/assets sustain declines.

     This TAO model was created in 1985, modified in 2016, and has a positive, 1:10,000 (p < 0.0001), n = 12,064, Pearson correlation,

TAO with DJIA, 1900 - present.  TAO is 100% objective: numbers in = planetary angular separations, then Sine formula, = TAO oscillator out.

01/23/17:    The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual:  The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,

                     3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Antisocial (to varying degrees) = DJT is a global risk.  "Wild Man". 

                     DJT's  Dx's are entrenched for life.  For DJT, all "perceived" threats become "real", and are attacked.

04/28/17:    DJT:  Probable early ALZ.  The Present gradually becomes more overwhelming.  The idealized past is a refuge.

4 - 28 cdt  1440:   TACTICAL Expo (Hrs-Dys):


                  Buy        Date   Time        Price      Stop     Sell Date  Time       Price          %      Model

In              TZA        04/27  1415       16.62      17.01          ETVF  (holding)

Exit           TZA        04/26  1030       16.38                         04/27  1315      16.63        1.5      ETVF

Exit           TZA        04/24  0910       17.28                         04/26  0945      16.71    -   3.3      ETVF

Exit           TZA        04/21  0844       17.96L                       04/21  1324      17.96s   -  0.0      ETVF

Exit           TZA        04/19  1045       18.20                         04/20  0830      18.41        1.1      ETVF

Exit           TZA        04/18  0900       18.87                         04/19  0830      18.67     -  1.1      ETVF

Exit           TZA        04/13  1408       19.29                         04/13  1435      19.52        1.2      ETVF

Exit           TQQQ    04/13  1300       84.87                         04/12  1400      85.20        0.4      ETVF


  L =limit   s = stop                       Tactical Primarily uses:         ETF = Expo T  Fast         ETVF = Expo T  Very Fast
      (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)


Tactical  Stats

From  01/25/17            Net%+/--    #    #+  #-      W%  L%         Sum+   Sum-    Ave%+   Ave%-

EQUITY  ETFs                      64.9          50    29   21         58     42             76.2      - 11.3          2.6         - 0.5          

%24NYADy040517.png%24AExpoT040717.png

4 - 28 cdt  0740 note

   

Expo  T    Exponential Oscillator Trends:   Both Tactical (Hours/Days) and Strategic (Days/Weeks/Months)

Charts     Technical    Expo T   (4-8),     $NYA  (4-5)  and  Astro  TAO  4-7 update (05/16/16 - 6/6/17)     Below.

TAO        Transit Aspect Oscillators:   Astro scientific indexes.   Transit aspects as they affect global events.

                   All USA alliances undermined, internally and externally.  Legislative fracturing.


4 - 28:     DJT:  Probable early ALZ.  At least he doesn't drive anymore...

3 - 22:     Legislative void.  (DJT External bravado = Inherent weakness).  Hindenberg omen, in effect.


              STRATEGIC Expo T (Days-Weeks):    TZA   4 - 26 @1030,  $16.38.


Postings are usually >=20min delayed