Expo  ETF  Trading                                                             Richard  Schulz

    

     Exponential Oscillators:   18 ETFs  Expo T      Markets: Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Gold, Oil


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:


1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts


 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

 


mepicture091209.jpg

SOMC Purposes:   10/21/16


1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors

2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience



NOTES...   2017                                                                                                                          Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx


01/13 0730: 1/12, most equity Expo Ts reversed short.  The ama's began to reverse.  Today, minimal highs early, lower close into 1/17.

01/12 0730: Remember 11/08 2100 to 11/09 0200?  Equity Reality = ER visit.  ETFast is essentially short.  Expo Ts close behind.

01/11 0730: Today, equities weakening.  Setting up, day by day, for the sharp decline into March.

01/10 0730: Little movement expected today.  Gradual progress on all Expo Ts.  The goal: Expo Osc page complete by 1/31.

01/09 0730: Since SPY Expo T has been long from 1/4, then I posted wrong from 1/4.  To be corrected ASAP.  Today, given the futures and the new daily technical chart, holding SPXS is the best option.  The overnight high of 2275 is most likely the high for today, and the start of the anticipated sharp and substantial equity decline.  

01/06 0740: NFP neutral.  Today, again, equities weak.  Expo T for NYSE, SPY,  FXE, IWM finished.  NYSE Expo T and Technical today.

01/05 0800: Away this am.  Status quo.  Today, equities working lower.

01/04 0800: SPY is now near the Expo T sell value = SPXS entry probable early.  This am I will post the Expo T NYSE & SPY values.  Then, as time permits, posting  Expo and Technical charts.  Today opens the 2nd rally day, and equity reversal short is near.

01/03 0800: The new Expo T values for NYSE and SPY will be posted by end 1/4.  SPXL and SPXS will be the primary ETFs.

                       The primary 2017 goal: Reliability.   The returns then naturally occur.

                       Today: the Equity Expo Ts are almost all short = selling 1-2 day rallies, unless there is a long reversal.


2016

12/30 1500:  Exiting into 2017 for new NYSE/SPY Expo T signals.

           0800:  Little change today.  Holding into 1/3/17.  Expos vs. Seasonals goes on.

12/29 0800:  In Lake Geneva, WI.  Equity Expos almost all short now, and in holding short mode.  12/29-30: gradually extending lower.

12/28 0700:  No change.  After 1000, may be away for the day.

12/27 0750:  Equity Expos , most short, some long.  Seasonals long.  Equities meander, for awhile...

12/23 0750:  More equity Expos selling, and probably winning the battle against seasonal positives.

12/22 0720:  Equity Expo models remain mixed, with a bias short.  Today, into 12/23, expected quiet.

12/21 0710:  A time when equity seasonals are bullish, countered by most Expos being bearish.  For now, going nowhere fast...


ETFs:  Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:


Long  =  Buy: SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, TQQQ,  IWM, TNA,   XIV,    TLT, TMF, GLD, NUGT      Profits on Rising prices

Short =  Buy:   SH, SDS, SPXS, PSQ, SQQQ, RWM, TZA, UVXY,  TBF, TMV, DZZ, DUST      Profits on Falling prices



                          Expo T            and            Technical  Charts

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

T812514300png.jpg

TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.



The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

Current ETF Position    01/13cst  1500:   

                                                                                                                 (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)

                   Buy        Date  Time     Price    Stop  Sell  Date  Time     Price     %    Expo

In              SPXS      01/04  0834   10.43L  10.16                                                  ETF


L =limit   s = stop       ET = Expo T         ETF = Expo T  Fast         ETVF = Expo T  Very Fast

Stats            For 2017,  The objective:  Posted entries/exits use Expo T for SPY.

From  01/03/17            Net%+/--   #   #+  #-    W%  L%      Sum+   Sum-    Ave%+   Ave%-

EQUITY  ETFs                              0            0      0     0         0        0                0            0               0                0

SPY     Expo T    5/16 to Present

11/18  NYSE    TAO     TAO +/-    ME/MA       NYSE  with 3 Primary Astro Oscillators

     TAO (the Red TAO on the graph) is the most primary and reliable TAO variation, with greater than 1:10,000 significance back through 1900.  It is a zeroed planetary transit aspect oscillator, reflecting global psychology.  When above 0, more optimism (risk taking), and when below, greater pessimism.  TAO +/- (Orange) shows the general, long term Optimism/Pessimism factor.  ME/MA (Blue) is the dynamic (but less reliable)  Mercury/Mars component of this TAO.  NYSE (Black) is the standard index.  The TAO has been advanced 7 days. 

    11/18: Assessment.  2wks of NYSE <5% decline, then a sustained year end rally 5-10+%, into early 2017.
Graphic:  5/14 through 1/11/17:

SPY  Expo T   Stats:    Sum%   T#    G#   L#    %G   %L   T G%  T L%  AveG% AveL%

5/16/16 - Present         16.4      16    11     5      68     32    20.7   - 4.3      1.9     - 0.8

01/13  0730 note  

   

            1)  Expo T    2) ETF Technical Charts    3)  Astro TAO charts        (in order of impact)

    

 Expo     Exponential Oscillators (page):  12/15 New Table by 12/19.   Expo: innovative technical tools.

 01/13    Expo T   Long:  TLT 12-28, GLD 12-28, FXE 1-4    Neutral: VIX   Short:  SPY 1/12, USO 1-4

 Charts  Expo T  (New  01/06),    SPY  (01/08)  and   Astro TAO (11/14)     below

 TAO       Transit Aspect Oscillators: Astro scientific indexes (below).  Transit aspects as they affect global psychology.

 Note      01/13   Next week, wild man is sworn in...  First Major low Mar-Apr 2017.  


12/30:  Expo:  EXPLORING 25% RETURNS PER ANNUM, SCIENTIFICALLY, MOST YEARS, RELIABLY, LOW RISK, UNLEVERAGED,

                                  FLEXIBLE, FOR MOST LIQUID MARKETS AND TIME FRAMES (and vital right now)

NYSE   EXPO T   values     (2 data/day)       +1000/-1000 Max/Min      Dates with opening Signal    

NovDec   2B   5B   6B   7B   8B   9B 12B 13B 14B 15B 16B 19B 20B 21B 22S 23S 27S 28S 29S 30S 03S 04S 05B 06B 09B 10B 11B 12B 13S

0930       302 304 314 338 397 458 513 550 581 570 555  533 516 505 490 472  463 454  429 409 404  420 454  476 489  491 493 487

1430       297 310 321 370 428 487 532 571 575 562 543  520 510 498 479 464  461 439  418 397 405  438 469  487 489  495 495 485


SPY    EXPO T  values     (2 data/day)       +1000/-1000 Max/Min      Dates with opening Signal

NovDec   2B   5B   6B   7B   8B   9B 12B 13B 14B15B 16B 19B 20B 21B 22B 23B 27B 28B 29S 30S 03S 04S 05B 06B 09B 10B 11B 12B 13S

0930       278 266 262 269 313 360 411 449 485 492 484 460 442 430  414  397 394 388  364 339 325  323 342 360 388  400 408  405

1430       266 265 263 292 335 390 427 471 486 493 469 447 436 423  404  391 394 375  352 323 318  333 350 376 394  405 412  405



GLD, FXE, TLT/IEF, USO  (maybe VEU) Probable Expo T  value additions to cover the 5 major sectors

SPY 01/06/17  Daily  1500 Close.

     SPY is positioned similarly with early Sep 2016: 1) No new highs for 3 weeks.

2) Lower MACD lows at/below 2.0  3) Narrow BBs (16,1.0).  The 1/6 breakout above the upper 1.0 BB is therefore suspect.  Ergo, a sharp 10% decline into March 2017 is anticipated, pausing near 224.00, then breaking the Nov 4 lows.

  

01/06   NYSE          Expo T,   Expo T Fast,   Expo T Slow         5/16/16 - 01/05/17

     Expo T is a composite of Exponential Oscillators and EO Sums.  It is zeroed, with a range of +1000 to -1000.

Expo T will be applied to the 18 ETFs followed (initially).  It can be adjusted numerically for all markets and time frames.        Expo T can be utilized a number of different ways.  Primarily, certain %s off high/lows indicate reversals.         


111416TAO.png

01/13 0730  Expo T:   Short  NYSE 01/12 @0900,   11195            01/13  If @1430 NYSE  <11380,   then long  ET

                                        Short  SPY   01/12 @0900,  226.00           01/13  If @1430  SPY   <228.80,  then long  ET

               

01/09 0900:                 ET = Expo T         ETF = Expo T  Fast         ETVF = Expo T  Very Fast

     

     Expo T signals vary from days to weeks: average currently 9 days, based on 0930&1430 (x2 daily) data input.

     Expo Fast uses the most dynamic component of Expo.  Expo Very Fast uses hourly data input (x8/day). The EVF rules are not set yet.
There is no "track record" other than what is posted. The theoretical framework is sound.  Expo is a new invention at work, in progress, real time.


18 Expo's:     NYSE,  NASX,  DJT,  IWM,  QQQ,  SPY,  XLF,  XLV,  XIV,  VEU,  VGK,  UUP,  FXE,  TLT,  HYG,  LQD,  GLD,  USO.

%24AY010617.png
  2016  
   B /S
 NYSE   + / -
     %
 % SUM
 16 May
 S 1430
 206.60      
      0       0
 24 May
 B 0930
 205.90     0.7
    0.3     0.3
 10 Jun
 S 1430
 210.00     4.1
    2.0
    2.3
 23 Jun
 B 0930
 209.80     0.2
    0.1
    2.4
 24 Jun
 S 0930
 206.00   - 3.8
  - 1.8
    0.6
 28 Jun
 B 0930
 201.20     4.8
    2.3
    2.9
 25 Aug
 S 1430
 217.60   16.4
    8.1
   11.0
 02 Sep
 B 1430
 218.40
  - 0.8
  - 0.4
   10.6
 09 Sep
 S 0930
 216.20
  - 2.2
  - 1.0
    9.6
 27 Sep
 B 1430
 215.60
    0.6
    0.3
    9.9 
 11 Oct
 S 0930
 214.60
  - 1.0
  - 0.5
    9.4
 18 Oct
 B 1430
 213.70     0.9
    0.4
    9.8
 25 Oct
 S 1430
 214.20     0.5
    0.2
  10.0
 07 Nov
 B 0930
 211.90     2.3
    1.0
  11.0
 28 Dec
 S 1430
 224.50   12.6
    5.9
  16.9
 04 Jan
 B 0930
 225.80   - 1.3
  - 0.6
  16.3
 12 Jan
 S 0900
 226.00     0.2
    0.1
  16.4
           
           
           
SPYDy010617.png