Schulz  on  Market  Cycles                        Richard  Schulz


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:


1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts


 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

 


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SOMC Purposes:   TAO 9  Transit Aspect Oscillator


1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

NOTES...                                                                                                                                              Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx

07/26 0800: Tested the lower half of the tight 9 day range, and rebounded.  The FED 7/27...

07/25 0700: No change.  The probable remains lower equities.  A daily chart of SPX 7/26 or 27. 

07/22 0700: Higher equities early, weakening into a lower close.

07/21 0915: SPX 10 min momentum reversed lower 7/19.  Below 2167, ama's augment.  Risk is 2177, and ideally does not approach that again.

07/21 0700: For the last week, equity stasis.  A sustained 90min SPX below 2164 reverses short term momentum, target 2132, 12/16ama average.

07/20 0700: In the current CB, negative rate environment, a change to different technical models is required.  For now, holding the TZA open.

07/19 0700: NYA is likely to be negative all day, and begin a 2mth decline.  Daily upper 2.0BBs have held, and VIX begins a rise.

07/18 0700: Finally, global equities set to decline. TLT has corrected, and ready to rise.  7/12 note even more pertinent.  I am working on both a global equity index (probably 4 index/ETF components), and a master astro index to be distributed later this year.  Today, higher opens, lower closes.

07/15 0740: The higher open is likely followed by a steady decline into a lower close.  VIX rising after a lower open.  Today, VIX is important.

07/14 0730: Time to reassess.  The models have failed beyond tolerance limits.  Ergo, a change.  Pause, reset and reemerge...

07/13 0700: Equities higher early then weakening gradually into a lower close.

07/12 1000: The 0850 TZA signal was coincident with sells of all the stock indexes, as well as HYG,JNK,IYT,VEU,VGK,XLF,XLK,XLV,XLP,XLY,USO and probably GLD,SLV, with buys of VIX,TLT, and similar.  The "why's" fundamentally are broad.  Technically, at the upper limits of the 2.0BBs. Prices have over-extended the normal ma's, and are likely not only to regress to the means, but also begin the anticipated decline into Sep lows.  Technical exhaustion, coupled with fanciful idealism and optimism (TAO local high).  Less than one step (event) away from the "cliff...".

         0730:  The TZA stop was triggered; my error. Now flat.  Some new yearly US index highs, and that's a problem.  More later. (VIX still alive.)

07/11 0700:  The difficulties compounded on Friday.  Reliable publishing was not possible, and out of my control.  My apologies for the inaccuracies. Currently, long TNA.  VIX is only covered now on the VIX page, and it reversed early.  Today, equities higher early, weakening later.  SPX especially will open near its upper risk limit (wkly chart).  Lower into Sep is the forecast.  We'll see...

07/08 0740:  So far, both technical and astro failures.  Today, Equities pushing to a 1% gain, then closing moderately higher.  The 7/1 weekly SPX chart remains valid.  VIX will only be on the VIX page, with minimal commentary.  Global equities in relationship with astro is the focus with SOMC.

07/07 0700:  7/8 is astro likely to be lower, implying equities weakening today. 

07/06 0700:  Status quo. Globally, the economic condition is so unique that models fail.  Technicals and TAO 10 remain reliable.

07/05 0700:  Improving technicals for SPXS (shorts).   For equities, Astro is negative into 7/8, and charts favoring a sharp global decline.

07/01 0701:  Seasonals (into 7/1) won, overhead resistance lost.  New SP daily chart by 7/4.  Today, likely holding into a lower US 7/5 open.

06/30 0700:  Today, erratic am, then weakening.  SQQQ holding.  Another attempt at UVXY probable.  Brexit and consequences remain.

06/29 1130:  All major US equity indexes are now within 0.5% of major overhead resistance.  Tight stop.  Forecast now: lower from here into 7/5+.

0700:  The primary goals into Sep are: 1) reduce risk, 2) benefit from equity declines.  Exiting TNA near the open.  SPXS entry considered.  More before the open.  The next leg lower in global equities will be serious.

06/28 1315:  Buying again after the intraday lows held = less risk.  Now seasonals in the US help the equity, risk-on rebound into 7/1. 

0700: Beginning the equity rally into 6/30-7/1.  The 2016 equity highs are in.  Destabilization into Sep.  New daily chart 7/1.

06/16 0700: The CBs so far have done little. So, the mistake is now the SPXS non-entry 6/24.  It occurred about 0940, just not executed. From here a 1-2 day contra-trend rally is needed to reduce the risk of SPXS, et.al..  For 6/27, a 60/40 of an early US equity bottom.  A major low  still in Sep.

06/24 0730: 3/28/07 FED Chairman Ben Bernacke "subprime seems likely to be contained".  2016 BOE Governor Mark Carney "We're well prepared for Brexit".  Likely similar outcomes.  Although an SPXS entry 6/23 carried great reward, the gap risk was too high, with Futures the only effective modality.  So now, safely on the sidelines, we are faced with an inherently difficult entry.  Patience at the moment.  Equities have a 3 mth, deep Bear slide ahead.  Today, an entry is unlikely.  Into 6/27 the global CBs will intervene.  Then the futility will settle in.  US/German bonds remain stable.

0500: The global Bear market now continues with unanimity, into Sep 2016. New yearly lows ahead. SP and DJI futures did reach new highs 6/23 evening until Brexit became probable.  Now the 6/15 "Brexit may be The black swan" is a reality.  This is unique and unprecedented.  The projection is for new yearly lows to be extended into Sep, with a V bottom rebound into the Clinton election.  Refer 6/16 SOMC note. 

06/23 0700:  6/21-22 "a choppy higher" and now 6/20 "new highs prior to 7/1" is more likely. Observing this am.  More later.

06/22 0700:  Equities technically: marginal, yet favorable.  6/21  "a choppy higher" still applies.  Possible UVXY set-up near 7/1. 

06/21  0700: The Market Uncertainty Principle: can know price or direction, but not both simultaneously...physics.  The exit 6/20 went ok.  Equities higher for a week is still most probable, barely, ergo a choppy higher.  So I watch for awhile.  7/1 will be my new fiscal year start for stats.  Enjoy...  

06/20  0720: The positive about this am is that VEU/VGK had an island 6/17 buy.  VIX was neutral. And NYA/NASX were holds.  VEU won.  The US indexes are now aimed at new highs prior to 7/1--this too a positive, adding to the magnitude of the decline into Sep.  Today, early exit. XIV entry?

06/17  0700: SPX upside is limited to 0.5%, 1.5 downside for the inverse x3ETFs.  Slightly higher in am, followed by weakness into a lower close.

06/16  0700: VEU is 7% lower from 6/8, and 19.7% from its last major weekly double top high 4/27/15. VGK is 25.8% lower from its 6/16/14 high.  US equities will experience these declines+ into Sep...TAO 10 reflecting the paralyzing factors of global negative interest rates, demographic declines, brexit threat or reality, and debt weight/vulnerability (limiting growth).  The stage was set by Bernacke (originally by Greenspan) and crew from 2006 ("...housing is contained..."), followed by the quick fixes of QE.  Now the globe is experiencing the delayed and enhanced pain of those policies.  Currently an unprecedented global economic condition, and worsening.  The last somc 6/15 TNA/UVXY buys were a profitable Mistake.  Had no business being long.  An equity/economic collapse is dead ahead.  And the main global CBs have created it, and are now powerless.  The US indexes by Sep are likely to be 20+% lower from their highs...Bear Market.  If it wasn't so tragic, it would be enjoyable with inverse equity ETFs.


ETFs:  Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:


Long  =  Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI    Profits on Rising prices

Short =  Buy:   SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV,  TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI    Profits on Falling prices



                                           Technical  Charts

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

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TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.



The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

SPX Weekly  7/1/16 1500:  (Posted 7/4, enjoy inverse index ETFs.)

    Once again, this chart features risk/reward.  The risk is a 2% rise to 2120-34, the previous 2015-16 highs.  The reward is a 3-5+% fall to below the recent 1990 low.  The 9/25/9 is primed to give a significant sell on any 2+ day lower price trend.  The 4/9/16 wk ma's have congested around 2070, also indicative of an imminent trend change (lower).

     Likely, the week of 7/5 produces the initial break of 2070, then below the lower inner 1.1BB at 2050.  The Brexit break to 1990 has now reduced the buying power there, therefore when tested, 1990 will not provide much support.  By then, all the ma's will have turned lower, and the 9/25/9 exponential MACD will be extending into a protracted decline below zero.

    Given the new weekly lows established in Jan/Feb, the longer weekly trend will probably not stop until well below 1830.   

     The TAO 10 planetary Transit Aspect Oscillator remains below zero (pessimism and negative economic/political outcomes) into 2017.

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Transit Aspect Oscillator   TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.

     The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right.  The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale.  As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop.  The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011.  The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction.  From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline.  The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.


     This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant.  However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is.  Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates),  and 1987-1993 (US equity, Jap equity/housing/asset crashes).  Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession).  Rose into 2007 and stalled (showing the futility of Bernacke discounts).

The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011.  2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.

TAO 9  7/26cdt  0800 note

               

     7/5: Astro is reliable longer term (mths-yrs) for equities (real-time for people).  Equities today only partially represent the current global human condition (TAO 10). TAO 10 weakens into Sep 2016, and a likely yearly equity low.

     Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO, an astro scientific index.  Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics.  There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress.  Global equities peaked 2014-15.  Global GDPs decelerating (negative likely 2016).  Deflation dominant.  US/German Bonds stable.


    6/20:  Equities: Late June high, Sep low.  US highs, then a Jul/Aug/Sep collapse.


Equity Charts7/4 New SPX Weekly posted.          2006-2015 TAO 9 beneath charts.

6/10/16  1500  $NYA 144min,  4 bars/day  (5/6-6/10):

    The NY Comp usually provides the clearest one index view of US equity trends (esp. when used with VEU and $VIX).  All 3 painted the same picture last week: the last gasp of an internally weak rally.  Here the focus is on 6/8 failing to exceed the 2.0BB and lower last bar high, 6/9 within the 1.0BB, with the 6/10 collapse below the lower 1.0BB.

   The 6/6-6/8 breakout set the stage for a sharper decline.  However,

6/10's fall stopped at the 16dama (64bar) & 25dema (100bar) combo.  It may take NYA a few days to break below 6/10's low, but it is very likely to happen next week, and then continue lower to 10270, the 64dema, and then 9650, in phases yet to be known.  The 12dama (48 bar) is now rolling over, and 1.0BBs ready to decline and widen.

   The 2 primary MACDs are included.  All 4 lines are used together, and are now declining.  In short, a large decline is probably beginning.

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ETF  Position7/26cdt  0900:  Technicals and Astro.   Global Bear market, Deflation, TAO Fear Elevated.

                                                                                                          (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)

Current       Buy       Date  Time     Price      Stop   Sell  Date  Time   Price      %

In                TZA        7/22 1400     30.43     29.81

Exit             TZA        7/12 0850     31.54                        7/22 1230   30.63   -  2.8

Exit             TZA        7/11 0840     32.90                        7/11 1345   32.25    -  2.0

Exit             TNA        7/8  1130      64.65                        7/11 0840   68.40   +  5.8


Stats:                                                       L = limit    s = stop out

From 7/1/16:          Net%+/--    #    #+  #-    W%  L%   Sum+   Sum-    Ave%+  Ave%-

EQUITY  ETFs                 - 1.4           4    1     3       25      75         5.8       -  7.2          5.8        -  2.4

   

7/21/15 -  7/1/16                149.0         81    52    29     64      36       198.7    -50.7        3.8         -1.8