Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 available:
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
NOTES... Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx
09/26 0740: Expo has been a consuming creative effort over the last month. It is now in workable condition. After the initial insight in 1988, and a preliminary addition in the early 90's, further expansion with the TAO work, ema's and ama's have now been combined into an accurate oscillator. There will eventually be a separate page(s) for Expo. The track record starts with 5/16/16 NYSE model. No history. Just solid theory...
09/23 0740: Introducing Exposit: EXPonential OscillatorS In Trading. Theoretically, Exposit is a new technical timing tool,
applicable to all markets in all time frames. Focusing this am is to post an Expo, for the NYSE index. Equities today: random early, lower close.
09/22 0740: The 2 primary Osc models have been on buys. So there was a mea culpa. Closer to posting the Osc, as well as to sell signals.
09/21 0740: Equities hopefully will rally further post-FED. Very likely to be short by 1400 today.
09/20 0740: The Osc models remain short term trendless--no position likely throughout the day, into the 9/21 FED.
09/19 1400: The Osc models are now mixed--the shorter term, long, and the longer term, short. Remaining flat into 9/20; meandering is most likely.
09/16 1330: This equity rally will probably V peak (inverted) on 9/21-22 (SP 2180).
1000: The OSC models remain on a buy, probably into 9/19. Today, another exit possible.
0930: My computer system seemed to install updates successfully, then glitched. Now, probably resolved.
09/15 0600: Will be gone all day to court for the murder accomplice hearings. The OSC models indicate an equity rally of 1-3%, unknown duration. Any equity rally intact at 1030 will sustain it. All of the primary SP sectors (XLF,XLK,XLV,XLP,XLY) are primed to rally. So are almost all of the major Global sectors (EWA,EWC,EWG,EWJ,EWS,EWU...near lower daily 2.0 BBs or support ma's. Soon, a sustained TZA position will be entered.
09/14 0740: Overnight, improving. Positions ok. Today, irregularly higher into the US equity close.
09/13 0740: Over the next few days, higher equity lows, and lower highs, resolving in a 10-20% breakdown, continuing lower into 2017.
09/12 0740: 2 days of irregularities, rumors and gyrations = choppy.
09/09 0740: Historically unprecedented Global CB policies...a volatile (debt leveraged) experiment...sometimes there are explosions...as now...
09/08 0740: Adding an anti-grind model component. Today, ECB gave the FED rate rise room. 9/8-9-12+ lower. 9/12&19 weeks, sharply lower.
09/07 0740: My models perform worst in a grinding higher environment = the last 2 months. Incur the losses (or no gain) and keep applying them...
09/06 0740: Today, a higher equity open, weaker than 9/2, then more rapidly declining. At the cliff's edge...
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV, TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPX Daily 8/19/16 1500: Trend change lower Imminent.
This SP 500 chart has the extended (5wks) feature of essentially unchanged, with the lowest 5wk range in memory. To state the obvious, this will change. Likely, a 10+% equity slide soon.
The 9/1 Solar Eclipse is one major factor, replete with hard aspects. For the SE USA, a major hurricane landfall is almost likely, added to the Louisiana disastrous flooding (the Lunar Cap ingress with both Jupiter & Neptune). The Eclipse will coincide with multiple, major global "events".
In the SPX chart below, the BBs are almost maximally narrowed (trend likely to initiate). A lower BB breakout (2157) is probable, then extending to/beyond 2135, the 64ema/49ama pair. The 169ema near 2077 is relatively important support, only temporarily recently broken post Brexit, and is a primary target for the next few weeks. The 9/25 MACD is prepped to plunge. Increased Volatility for the 8/22 week+.
9/26 cdt 0740 note. 0600 EXPO posted below
Evolving all week: 1) Equity EMA Oscillators 2) ETF Technical charts 3) Astro TAO charts
8/10: Astro is reliable longer term (mths-yrs) for equities (real-time for people). Equities only partially represent the current global human condition (TAO 10). TAO 10 weakens into Sep/Oct 2016: the psychological and local equity lows.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO, an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress. Global equities peaked 2015-16: Global GDPs decelerating (negative starting Q3 2016??). Deflation dominant. US/German Bonds stable.
9/19: Beginning Monday 9/19, a New x3 Oscillator and Daily Index charts (both technical), updated at least weekly.
8/17: Equities: Eclipse 9/1. 8/15 high, then Sep/Oct 10-20+% lower. A Clinton election rally into Jan 2017.
This Solar Eclipse will have major, negative global impacts, with many hard (2nd/4th/8th harmonic) aspects.
Equity Charts: 8/22 SPX daily posted.
2006-2015 TAO 9 on TAO 8 Science.
ETF Position: 9/26cdt 0740: Technicals and Astro. Global Bear market, Deflation, TAO Fear Elevated.
(Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Time Price %
In TZA 9/21 1316 28.02 26.74
Exit TQQQ 9/16 0930 123.20 9/19 0920 125.80 + 2.1
Exit TQQQ 9/14 1428 118.16L 9/16 0830 124.23 + 5.1
Exit TQQQ 9/13 1100 116.64 9/14 1400 119.58 + 2.5
L =limit s = stop out
From 7/1/16: Net%+/-- # #+ #- W% L% Sum+ Sum- Ave%+ Ave%-
EQUITY ETFs 22.2 19 11 8 58 42 35.1 - 12.9 3.2 - 1.6
7/21/15 - 7/1/16 149.0 81 52 29 64 36 198.7 -50.7 3.8 -1.8
EXPOSIT EXPonential OscillatorS In Trading NYSE Expo 1 05/16/16 - 09/23/16
EXPO MODE 9/26cdt 0600: SELL 9/23cdt 1430: Expo reversing into a New Sell.
THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO GRAPH EXPO, AS WELL AS HOW TO GENERATE BUY/SELL SIGNALS. EXPO IS A NOVEL OSCILLATOR (ZEROED AROUND THE NYSE, OR ANY ETF/COMMODITY) COMBINING BOTH EMA AND AMA SEQUENCES.