Expo  ETF  Trading                                                             Richard  Schulz

    

     Exponential Oscillators:   18 ETF Expos      Markets: Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Gold, Oil


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:


1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts


 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

 


mepicture091209.jpg

SOMC Purposes:   10/21/16


1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors

2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience



NOTES...                                                                                                                                              Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx

12/08 0720:  Mea culpa.  The errors nudged me to refine the Expo 0.  Expo 1 was an initial, and inadequate attempt.  ASAP I will post a slightly revised Expo 0 (the reversal warning), with its Filter value (the trigger).  Also, ideally, a Sector synopsis 5/16-present for Expo 0 with filter for:  1) Equities NYA, NASX, DJT, IWM, QQQ, SPY, XLF, XLV, VEU, VGK, XIV    2) XIV alone    3) Bonds  TLT, HYG, LQD trio    4) Currency FXE, UUP duo 5) Gold GLD    6) Oil USO.  It's been an unexpected, quixotic, grueling, and now close to rewarding adventure.  12/7 typified exhaustion, especially for XIV.  So until the equity ETFs normalize short, the XIV Expo XVF signal (short 12/7) will be used, and gradually lengthened into XF, then Expo 0.

Also an entire 18 ETF portfolio performance from 5/16-present...a fair amount of work. 

12/07 0710:  12/06, the likely intraday equity highs.  Most of the equity ETFs remain short, some reversed long, 2 never sold = mixed, with a bias lower.  By end Dec, the Expo Oscillator table will be completed, and a 2nd Expo value table begun.  For now, the Expo's are Long FXE, GLD, IEF, and Short Equities, UUP, USO, probably into late Dec.

12/06 0705:  Today, a higher/neutral open, then trending lower.  Simplifying Expo 0 vs Expo 1.  By end Dec, completed.

12/05 0750:  Resolving the Expo 0 vs 1 dilemma.  For today, higher early, sustainable into the close.  12/6 more probable for lower.

12/02 0740:  NFP neutral. Equity Expo's remain in a continuing decline into/through 12/9+.

12/01 0740:  10min XIV is still long, hence the futures rally.  Sustained <43.25 will trip short.  Today, higher early, then declining into lower close.

11/30 0750:  Expo being tested today into NFP by adversity.  New Expo trends solidify one by one.  ADP strong.  FED raise definite. 

11/29 0740:  Trend reversals are upon 4 sectors: new Shorts   Equities, USD    new Longs  Euro, US/German Bonds.  (Gold mixed at present, but has a bias Long).  Expo 0's have reversed.  Expo 1's very close.  All at extremes.  1 of 2 outcomes: a 2-3wk correction, or an extended reversal.  Only time will tell, and the Expo's will move with the markets.  The reversals imply a weak NFP, and that the FED rate rise is factored in.

11/28  0730:  A battle of the Expo's is on.  I am transitioning from Expo 0 to Expo 1.  The additional E1 component was needed from day 1, and took time to format.  As with the TAO's, there are an infinite number of Expo's. The work has been simplifying those down to 7, unique yet reliable Expos.

Today (and this whole week) is becoming very likely for the initial equity trend change.  Also coming soon are the NFP and FED...

11/25  0730:  Expo has an additional new fundamental component (final??) now that data entry/format is almost completed.  Bottom line, NYSE came close to, but has not yet, signaled a sell.  The Expo NYSE values posted will be changed this am.  Also a new Expo graph will be posted by 11/28.  While I upgrade today into 11/28, today the old Expo is being used, and both NYSE, IWM and XIV very fast remain short.  Lower closes likely.

11/23  0700:  The bullish bias into Thxgiving won.  More Expos reversed over 11/21-22.  More possible today, but generally quiet.

11/22  0700:  NYSE: most reliable is not always.  The other US indexes are long. Today, likely higher open, and still short into a lower close.

11/21  0720:  NYSE is in the minority of equity ETF/Indexes short.  NYSE, however, is the most reliable.  The chart technicals are mixed, with IWM still in an exhaustion sell island.  All MAs are compressing.  The red TAO above is forecasting a 2+/-wk decline, then a year end rally to new highs.  The experience from the 5/16 initiation of Expo is to use the NYSE as the basis signal.  Hence, until it reverses long, all equity rallies can be sold.

11/18  0730:  The ETF reversal influx is upon us.  NYSE needs only a little nudge.  And, today, of all days, I am attending a funeral service.  Leaving about 1000, and away 'til post close.  If NYSE hasn't reversed at 0930, I'll post the 1430 criteria. Today, equities eroding to a lower close.

11/17  0740:  Many of the 19 ETF Expos (equity) will likely reverse short today. The NYSE price is posted above. After the open I am away until 1300.

The Expo being used is only a best guess 1st version.  Over time, refinements will be introduced.  For now, enjoy...

11/16  0750:  IWM completed an ideal 2 day island exhaustion gap 11/15 = a reversal sell.  Other indexes to decline now.  Major.

11/15  0750:  The NYSE Expo is near 300, a level which usually stalls or reverses the price rise. The IWM:SPY ratio is weakening pre-market.  It remains likely that NYSE Expo will reverse 11/16-17.  The 16 Expo's and 8 Expo VF's (very fast) formatting and data loading continues...  The astro TAO chart above has correlated well with equities since 5/16.  As soon as possible, I'll post TAO with at least a month lead time.

11/14  0750:  If NYSE>10550 x2, Expo stays long.  Today, early highs; holding Expo very fast short into later am.  NYSE close slightly lower.

11/11  0750:  If NYSE>10580 x2 (0930,1430), Expo stays long.  Equities today, greater selling later, into 11/14.  Loading more Expos,...soon.


ETFs:  Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:


Long  =  Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI    Profits on Rising prices

Short =  Buy:   SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV,  TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI    Profits on Falling prices


                                 Technical  Charts

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

T812514300png.jpg

TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.



The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

ETF  Position12/08cst  1441:              EXPO defined.

                                                                                                          (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)

Current       Buy        Date  Time     Price    Stop  Sell  Date  Time   Price     %

In                TZA       11/22  0930    21.67   Holding         XIV  Expo very fast (XVF)


L =limit   s = stop         EF = Expo Fast   EVF = Expo Very Fast

Stats

From 7/1/16:              Net%+/--   #    #+  #-    W%  L%      Sum+   Sum-    Ave%+   Ave%-

EQUITY  ETFs                   42.2       37    20    17      54      46        72.3     - 30.1         3.6       -  1.8

   

7/21/15 -  7/1/16               149.0        81    52    29     64     36       198.7      -50.7        3.8         -1.8

12/08 Expo 0:  long  NYSE                                            12/08 Using XIV Expo 0 XVF signals  (refer 12/8 note)

                        long   IWM       .                                       ..if @1430, XIV >47.16, reverses long (unlikely)


Expo 1 Chart: 5/16 through 11/25 1500      (last date 1/06/17 1430)                                             EXPO:  Exponential Oscillators

11/16 0600:    At present, using these posted NYSE values/signals is the most reliable guide.

     

     Expo signals vary from days to weeks: average currently 10 days, based on 0930&1430 (x2 daily) data input.

     Expo Fast uses the most dynamic component of Expo.  Expo Very Fast uses x8 hourly data input. The x8 EVF rules are not set yet.
     There is no "track record" other than what is posted. The theoretical framework is sound.  Expo is a new invention at work, in progress, real time.


18 Expo's: NYSE, NASX, DJT, IWM, QQQ, SPY, XLF, XLV, XIV, VEU, VGK, UUP, FXE, TLT, HYG, LQD, GLD, USO.

............

Expo 0:  NYSE Signals 5/16 to Present

11/18  NYSE    TAO     TAO +/-    ME/MA       NYSE  with 3 Primary Astro Oscillators

     TAO (the Red TAO on the graph) is the most primary and reliable TAO variation, with greater than 1:10,000 significance back through 1900.  It is a zeroed planetary transit aspect oscillator, reflecting global psychology.  When above 0, more optimism (risk taking), and when below, greater pessimism.  TAO +/- (Orange) shows the general, long term Optimism/Pessimism factor.  ME/MA (Blue) is the dynamic (but less reliable)  Mercury/Mars component of this TAO.  NYSE (Black) is the standard index.  The TAO has been advanced 7 days. 

    11/18: Assessment.  2wks of NYSE <5% decline, then a sustained year end rally 5-10+%, into early 2017.
Graphic:  5/14 through 1/11/17:

Expo Stats:         Sum%   T#    G#   L#    %G   %L   T G%  T L%  AveG% AveL%

5/16 - Present        21.9     18    13    5      72     28    24.4   - 2.5      1.9     - 0.5

12/08 cst   0830 Open ok.  Leaving until 1300.  0720 note

   

         1) EXPO  EMA Oscillators   2) ETF Technical Charts    3)  Astro TAO charts        (in order of impact)

    

 11/14:    EXPO (11/25),  Equity  (11/7) and  Astro TAO (11/14) charts posted below.

 Expo     Exponential Oscillators (page):  11/28 New Table in progress.   Expo: innovative technical tools.

 ETF      Technical chart analysis (below) featuring modified MA's and MACD's.

 TAO      Transit Aspect Oscillators: Astro scientific indexes (below).  Transit aspects as they affect global psychology.

 Econ     12/08: NFP = FED raise.   Long: Euro, IEF, Gold    Short: Equities, USD, Oil


10/12:  Expo:  EXPLORING 30+% RETURNS PER ANNUM, SCIENTIFICALLY, EVERY ANNUM, RELIABLY, LOW RISK, UNLEVERAGED,

                                  FLEXIBLE, FOR MOST LIQUID MARKETS AND TIME FRAMES (and vital right now)

       Nov-Dec    01    02    03    04    07   08    09    10    11    14    15    16    17    18    21    22    23   25    28    29    30    1    2     5     6     7     8     9

Expo 1  0930  -209 -277 -345 -416 -408 -321  -240  -81  +29  116   186  251  281   291  297  332  349  382  397  367  368  370 340 345 360 407  527

            1430  -242 -323 -386 -446 -355b-272 -157  - 9   +72  155   235  260  293   284  316  348  362  401  381  360s372  348 328 356 371 477  584

11/29: Updated Expo 1.  Both Expo 1 and the original Expo 0 now equally scaled to 1000, and both are re-zeroed oscillators.

Expo 0  0930 -148  -215 -276 -333 -288b-161   -58  128   235  312  353  390  380  351s326  342  333  348  336  278  260  248 198 192 204  251  374

            1430 -181  -262 -313 -354  -209  -98   +43  204  276   338  391  378  371  325  334  346  337  356  305  260  257  213 175 201 213 328  424

  2016  
   B /S
 NYSE   + / -
     %
 % SUM
 16 May
 S 0930
 10330       0       0       0
 20 May
 B 1430
 10250      80
   0.8     0.8
  9  Jun
 S 1430
 10590    340
   3.3
    4.1
 20 Jun
 B 0930
 10460    130
   1.2
    5.3
 24 Jun
 S 0930
 10340  - 120
 - 1.2
    4.1
 28 Jun
 B 0930
 10080    260
   2.5
    6.6
 18 Jul
 S 0930
 10770    690
   6.8
  13.4
   4 Aug
 B 1430
 10710      60
   0.6
  14.0
 16 Aug
 S 1430
 10810    100
   0.9
  14.9
   2 Sep
 B 0930
 10850   -  40  - 0.4
  14.5
   9 Sep
 S 0930
 10780   -  70
 - 0.6
  13.9
 19 Sep
 B 1430
 10570    210
   1.9
  15.8
 26 Sep
 S 0930
 10660      90
   0.9
  16.7
 28 Sep
 B 0930
 10660   -    0
   0.0
  16.7
 30 Sep
 S 0930
 10700      40    0.4
  17.1
 18 Oct
 B 1430
 10570    130
   1.2
  18.3
 26 Oct
 S 1200
 10540   -  30
 - 0.3
  18.0
 07 Nov
 B 0830
 10420
   120 
   1.1
  19.1
 18 Nov
 S 0930
 10718
   298
   2.8
  21.9








   
   
 
 
     

SPY 11/04/16  1500 Close, 121min chart.

     "Comey one, Comey all..." and enjoy the sharp, sustained rally.  Expo will Reverse Long today, with 0930 being likely.  This 121min chart (4 data/day) was ready to rally when the FBI FIBbed and Flubbed.  SPY rises to beyond 216.50 (upper 2.0 BB) and $SPX exceeds 2170, by end Nov and probably much sooner.  A 5-10% rally, unleveraged, likely new highs for all indexes.

SPY121110416.png

NYSE  Expo 1, Expo Fast, Slow, Speed, Expo 0:          5/16/16 - 11/25/16

11/28  This NYSE Expo chart shows Expo 1 E1, Expo 0 E0, Expo Fast EF, Expo Slow ES, and Expo Trend (Speed) ET.

The order of signal frequency:  EF (most), E0, E1, ES, ET (least).

      Again, this is a work in progress, and this complex chart is provided for its information...to be simplified.

111416TAO.png%24Expo1z1125.png