CYCLES:  ETF  Trading:  Stocks,  Bonds,  Currencies,  Gold,  Oil               

                                                                                                                                   Richard  Schulz

                                  NYSE,  NASX,  SPY,   TLT    FXE   GLD,  USO


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:


1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts


 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

779-537-58

 


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SOMC Purposes:   10/21/16


1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors

2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience



NOTES


4 - 17 0600:  Risk-on currencies are topping. FED tightening.  Increased risk for all hard assets: equities, real estate, metals, et.al..

4 - 6   0700:  Bear market rallies usually are < 3 days, then another leg lower.  This am is typical.

2 - 28  1500:  VIX Trades not suitable for this site.  Refer to VIX page.

2 - 19:  Currencies aligning for a higher USD into 2-20 = equity weakness.
2 - 14:  Evolving dual Bears of stocks and bonds.  Into 2020+, also hard assets...

2 - 9  1100:  All VIX ETFs are suspect, at present.  This site will no longer trade them, indefinitely.

2 - 8:   Ending the equity rally...
2 - 6  0600: Equities, a 2 day rally (sharp?)

2 - 5:   Turning into a continuation.  2 - 2 1400:  Bona fide crash possible 2-5.

2 - 1:   Global Stock Bear is beginning.  USD Bull.  Hard asset Bear.  20+y Bond irregular.(1-4wk cycles).

1 - 30 0700:  The eventual 2020-2022+ Depression seems like a vacuous vapor at present  It is on the horizon, however.

1 - 26:  USD usually requires 2+ weeks to form its base.

01 - 10 0500:  All ExpO equities went short 1-9 @1430.  1-9 A turn day to remember.  Both Global Stocks and Bonds very vulnerable.

01 - 09 0800:  ExpO Euro is now short, USD long.  Equities are more vulnerable; likely to reverse short this week.

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

T812514300png.jpg

TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.



The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

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ASTRO  TAO  4 -7      1 - 25 chart update. Transiting  Planetary  Effects as related to the NYSE, and Global Equities and Assets.


     THE ASTRO  TAO (RED)  5-16-16 to 6-6-17, with the NYSE (BLACK) and Astro Sub Indexes.  TAO is an objective Transit Aspect Oscillator, and is ending a 7 month rise.   TAO is primarily Global Psychological Index.TAO >Zero & Rising = optimism.  TAO <Zero & Falling = pessimism and asset devaluation.  From early March, TAO goes below zero = pessimism and negative events dominate = equities/assets sustain declines.

     This TAO model was created in 1985, modified in 2016, and has a positive, 1:10,000 (p < 0.0001), n = 12,064, Pearson correlation,

TAO with DJIA, 1900 - present.  TAO is 100% objective: numbers in = planetary angular separations, then Sine formula, = TAO oscillator out.

01/23/17:    The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual:  The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,

                     3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Dissocial  6) Impulsive = DJT is a global risk.  "Wild Child" "Con Don". 

                     DJT's  Dx's are entrenched for life.  For DJT, all "perceived" threats become "real", and are attacked.  Early dementia probable.

postings are usually >=20min delayed                                                  Away Mon pm and Thurs am for bridge

    

        Tactical Trading (very short term) ExpO X & XX models (time frame minutes to days)

         S = Support   R = Resistance    B = Breakout   r=rising  f=falling 

4 - 20  1430cdt...holding

               60min chart:   S= 10.77r    R= 11.04  B= 11.08 if sustained

                 Buy         Date   Time       Price      Stop     Sell Date  Time        Price        %        Model

In              TZA        04/19  0935       10.55L   10.66         E XX

Exit           FAZ        04/17  1130        11.00                       04/19  0905       11.12         E XX

Exit           TZA        04/16  1415       10.94                       04/17  0830       10.81    -  1.2        E XX

Exit           TZA        04/13  1120       11.17                        04/16  1145       11.02    -  1.4        E XX

Exit           TZA        04/12  1425       11.00L       .              04/13  1100       11.23       2.1        E XX

Exit           TZA        04/10  1430       11.33                       04/12  1350        11.08    -  2.2        E XX


  L =limit   s = stop                   Tactical primarily uses:     ETF = Expo T  Fast    ETVF = Expo T  Very Fast
      (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx) 


ExpO  T  Tactical  Stats

                                   Net%+/--    #    #+  #-      W%  L%       Sum+   Sum-   Ave%+   Ave%-

2018  TACTICAL               141.1            75    53    22         70     30           156.2     - 15.1         3.0        - 0.7


2017  TACTICAL               174.8          149     81   68         54     46             218.7    - 43.9         2.7       - 0.6

4 - 20 cdt...                       ETF  Trading        ExpO  Z  Charts    


ExpO       Exponential Oscillator Trends:   Tactical Trading (holding Hours/Days)

Charts     4-13 close:   NYSE (Bi-daily & Hourly)   NASX,  SPY,  TLT,  FXE,  GLD,  USO  (Bi-daily)  ExpO Z Oscillators

              Astro TAO monthly 1900-2020  >10,000 PPM Correlation with stock prices (by May)

TAO       Transit Aspect Oscillators:   Astro scientific indexes.   Transit aspects as they affect global status.

                     Early October: the protective Jupiter/Saturn sextile ends.  Negative effect through March 2023.


4-20:  0830:  Equity/hard asset weakness into next week,  Begin weekly trend lower.  USD rising.  Bonds stable to rising.

4-4     0600:  The 1-30 note begins to have form.

1-30   0700: The eventual 2020-2022+ Depression seems like a vacuous vapor at present  It is on the horizon, however.

8 -24: Eclipse, a lingering negative astro effect, destabilizing, and DJT unraveling (Eclipse on his Ascendant)

NYSE  Hourly &  ExpO  Z.                                                                                 9/26/16  to 04/13/18 close

    

     Price Trend short.

     ExpO Z flat.

This week: NYSE re-trends short.   


    

NYSE Bi-daily & ExpO  Z.            Exponential Oscillator, zeroed                9/26/16 to 04/13/18 close

     This is the chart if price remains the same until 4/27.

      Price Trend short. 

      ExpO Z flat, bias short.

This week:  NYSE resuming trend short.

SPY   Bi-Daily                            9/26/16 to 4/13/18

       ExpO Z plot if price unchanged through 4/27.

       SPY Trend short. 

       ExpO Z weak.

This week: SPY lower.

NASX    Bi-Daily                            9/26/18  to  4/13/18

         Price Trend short.

         ExpO Z weak.  

This week:  NASX lower.

USO Bi-Daily                              9/26/16 to 4/13/18

      Price Trend long.

      ExpO Z double top, bias short.

This week: USO lower

FXE  Bi-Daily                             9/26/16  to  4/13/18

      Price Trend flat.

      ExpO Z flat, bias short.

This week:  FXE lower.

      .

GLD Bi-Daily                                   9/26/18 to 4/13/18

      Price Trend flat.

      ExpO Z flat, bias short. 

This week: GLD lower.

       .

TLT  Bi-Daily                                  9/26/16 to 4/13/18  

        Price Trend long.    

        ExpO Z trendless, bias long.

This week: TLT flat to higher.

Preface to Exponential Oscillator Charts

            Daily charts use bi-daily data.           Hourly use ct 0830, 0930, 1030, 1130, 1230, 1330, 1430, 1455.

      98+% of ExpO C values range between +/- 500. 

      The zero line identifies trends, and trends continue until a reversal ~+/- 100 is sustained.   When ExpO C exceeds ~+/- 200 then another guideline is to use the average of the previous 2 pivots for a reversal value.

ExpO C >< +/- 300  are extreme values and short term reversals are expected.

NYSE_Dy_041318.pngNYSE__Hr_041318.pngSPY__Dy__041318.pngNASX__Dy_041318.pngTLT__Dy__041318.pngFXE__Dy_041318.pngGLD_Dy_041318.pngUSO__Dy__041318.png